Weekend Musings!

My humble learnings: Maths- every problem has a solution and basically can be solved mentally,

Music - relaxes and soothens your nerves and learning it improves your innovativeness in problem solving and 

English - gives you lot of confidence to face your bros and bosses, gets you respect when you articulate clearly in English with little bit of humour sprinkled! it's literature is a gateway to know the world at large!மூச்சு வாங்குது!


<=><=><=><=><=><=>

WWW- We all know it is World Wide Web. Mundaka upanishad says Brahmam is like a Spider designing its web and generates the raw material itself to create the universe! So the Universe is a WWW-Wisvam,Wishnur,Washatkaro-Web!He also strides and measures the Universe-Wishwam, in 3 (www) steps!Even Bhagavatam extols the all pervading Bhagawan as "As the spider very easily creates the network of its cobweb and manifests its power of creation without being vanquished by others, so also you yourself, by employment of your omnipotent energy, create without any other's help "

Is He a Super Spider-man!!!

That is why- my blog Tagline has three "Ws" "We are What We are" as a mark of respect!!


<=><=><=><=><=><=>

High time India taxed Agri income of our Ministers, ex-Ministers,MPs,MLAs and PEP(Politically Exposed Persons),HNIs,at the maximum individual tax rates and that of their connected entities/Beneficial ownership entities must also be taxed forthwith.


<=><=><=><=><=><=>

Heady concoction of India's Higher Inflation, Higher Growth and Higher Unemployment rate!

Indian Inflation no. in June 23 

India's June CPI increased slightly to 4.81%, from 4.25% in May. This is still within the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) tolerance band of 2-6%, but it is the highest level since March 2023. The increase in inflation was driven by a rise in vegetable prices, which rose by 19.19% in June. Other food items that saw a rise in prices include cereals (12.7%), pulses (10.5%), and meat and fish (6.9%).

Based on the June inflation number, the RBI may do the following:

  • Keep interest rates unchanged in August. The RBI is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in its next monetary policy review in August, as it will want to assess the impact of the recent rate hikes before taking any further action. However, if inflation continues to rise, the RBI may be forced to raise rates again in September or October.
  • Signal a rate hike in August. The RBI may signal a rate hike in August, even if it does not actually raise rates at that time. This would send a signal to markets that the RBI is serious about containing inflation.
  • Start to tighten monetary policy in the coming months. If inflation continues to rise, the RBI may start to tighten monetary policy in the coming months. This could involve raising interest rates, selling government bonds, or increasing the cash reserve ratio (CRR).

The RBI's decision on what to do will depend on a number of factors, including the pace of inflation, the strength of the economy, and the global economic environment. However, the June inflation number suggests that the RBI may be forced to take action to tighten monetary policy in the coming months.

Here are some additional factors that the RBI will consider when making its decision:

  • The outlook for global inflation.
  • The pace of economic growth in India and unemployment rate in the country.
  • The impact of the fiscal policy of the GOI and the Govt borrowing programme.
  • The reaction of markets and the real economy to any rate hikes.

The RBI will carefully weigh all of these factors before making a decision on what to do. However, the June inflation number suggests that the RBI may be forced to take action to tighten monetary policy in the coming months.

What do May IIP nos. indicate

The Quick Estimates of Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for the month of May 2023 were released on July 12, 2023. The IIP for May 2023 stood at 145.0, an increase of 5.2% from the same month a year ago. This is the highest growth in the IIP since March 2023.

The growth in the IIP was broad-based, with all three major sectors -- mining, manufacturing, and electricity -- registering growth. Mining grew by 6.4%, manufacturing grew by 5.7%, and electricity grew by 0.9%.

The growth in the IIP was driven by a number of factors, including strong domestic demand, rising exports, and increased investment. The government's policies to boost the economy, such as the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme, are also having a positive impact on industrial production.

The IIP data is positive for the Indian economy. It suggests that the economy is on a recovery path and that growth is picking up. However, it is important to note that the IIP is a lagging indicator, so it may take some time for the full impact of the recent economic reforms to be felt.

Unemployment rate :

The unemployment rate in India in June 2023 was 8.45%, according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). This is the highest unemployment rate in India since April 2020. The unemployment rate in urban areas was 7.87%, while the unemployment rate in rural areas was 8.73%.

The high unemployment rate in India is due to a number of factors, including the slowdown in economic growth, the decline in manufacturing jobs, and the seasonal unemployment in rural areas. The government has taken some steps to address the unemployment problem, such as the Pradhan Mantri Kaushal Vikas Yojana (PMKVY), but more needs to be done to create jobs and boost economic growth.

We have a classic case of Growth and Inflation going up and Unemployment rate also going up in Tandem. Does Philips Curve work in Indian Economy?!!

Supreme Court's poser to SEBI on opacity in FPI ownership

The Supreme Court has upheld the constitutional validity of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI)'s 2018 amendment of the Companies Act, 2013, which requires companies to disclose the ultimate beneficial ownership (UBO) of their shares.

In a judgment delivered on March 8, 2022, the Supreme Court held that the amendment is a reasonable restriction on the right to privacy and is necessary to prevent money laundering and other financial crimes. The Court also held that the amendment does not violate the right to equality, as it is equally applicable to all companies, regardless of their size or ownership structure.

The amendment was challenged in a petition filed by the Association of Corporate Affairs Professionals of India (ACAPI), which argued that it was unconstitutional and would violate the right to privacy of shareholders. The ACAPI also argued that the amendment was unnecessary, as the existing laws were sufficient to prevent money laundering and other financial crimes.

The Supreme Court rejected these arguments, holding that the amendment is a reasonable restriction on the right to privacy and is necessary to achieve a legitimate public purpose. The Court also held that the amendment does not violate the right to equality, as it is equally applicable to all companies.

The Supreme Court's judgment has been welcomed by the government and financial regulators, who have argued that the amendment is an important step in preventing money laundering and other financial crimes. The amendment has also been welcomed by investors, who believe that it will increase transparency and accountability in the securities market. 

The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has amended its regulations on ultimate beneficial ownership (UBO) following the recommendations of the HR Khan Committee. The committee was set up by SEBI in 2021 to review the existing UBO framework and make recommendations for improvement.

The committee's report was submitted in March 2022, and SEBI has since issued two sets of amendments to its regulations, in May 2022 and June 2022. The amendments have made a number of changes to the UBO framework, including:

  • The definition of UBO has been broadened to include individuals who exercise control over a company, regardless of whether they hold a majority stake.
  • The concept of "control" has been defined more broadly to include not only legal ownership, but also the ability to exercise influence over a company's affairs.
  • The reporting requirements for UBOs have been strengthened, and companies will now be required to provide more detailed information about their UBOs.
  • The penalties for non-compliance with the UBO regulations have been increased.

The amendments are intended to make the UBO framework more effective in preventing money laundering and other financial crimes. They are also expected to increase transparency in the ownership of companies, which will benefit investors and other stakeholders.

Here are some of the specific changes in the test of UBO brought by SEBI following the HR Khan Committee's recommendations:

  • The concept of "control" has been defined more broadly to include not only legal ownership, but also the ability to exercise influence over a company's affairs. This means that individuals who do not hold a majority stake in a company may still be considered UBOs if they have the ability to control the company's affairs.
  • The reporting requirements for UBOs have been strengthened, and companies will now be required to provide more detailed information about their UBOs. This information will include the name, address, and nationality of the UBO, as well as the nature of their control over the company.
  • The penalties for non-compliance with the UBO regulations have been increased. This is intended to deter companies from failing to comply with the regulations.

The amendments to the UBO regulations are a significant step forward in the fight against money laundering and other financial crimes. They will increase transparency in the ownership of companies, which will benefit investors and other stakeholders.

However, the Supreme Court has now questioned SEBI on this issue of amendment which led to opacity in FPI ownership , during the hearing of the Adani-Hindenburg case on July 11, 2023. The Court asked SEBI why it had amended the norm barring opacity in FPI ownership based on the recommendations of the HR Khan committee, even though the committee had not specifically recommended such an amendment.

The Court's query is significant because it raises questions about the independence of SEBI and its willingness to follow the recommendations of expert committees. The Court's query also raises questions about the effectiveness of the UBO regulations, as amended by SEBI.

SEBI has not yet responded to the Court's query. However, it is likely that SEBI will argue that the amendment to the UBO regulations was necessary to address the concerns raised by the HR Khan committee. SEBI may also argue that the amendment was not intended to weaken the UBO regulations, but rather to make them more effective.In hindsight everything is 20:20.So SEBI may likely put forth that it had taken a practical view in the light of global investment trends during Covid which could have resulted in the change in the norm barring opacity in FPI ownership as an "unintended consequence". This has now come to light in Adani-Hindenburg saga.

The Court's query is likely to have a significant impact on the future of the UBO regulations in India. The Court's decision on this issue could have implications for the fight against money laundering and other financial crimes. It could also have implications for the transparency of ownership of companies in India.

The Court is expected to give its decision on this issue in the coming months starting 14th August 2023.

India's 2 wheeler and 4 wheeler sales in June 23 and what these sales indicate

 The total sales of two-wheelers in India in June 2023 was 14,36,245 units, a decline of 7.54% from May 2023 and 103,576 units from June 2022.

The top five two-wheeler manufacturers in India in June 2023 were:

  • Hero MotoCorp (5,47,912 units)
  • Honda Motorcycle and Scooter India (3,24,093 units)
  • TVS Motor Company (3,02,077 units)
  • Bajaj Auto (2,41,112 units)
  • Royal Enfield (32,202 units)

The electric two-wheeler segment also saw a decline in sales in June 2023, with 45,734 units sold, a decrease of 56.58% from May 2023.

The decline in two-wheeler sales in June 2023 was attributed to a number of factors, including:

  • Rising fuel prices
  • High interest rates
  • Economic slowdown
  • Reduction in FAME subsidy for electric two-wheelers

Despite the decline, the two-wheeler industry in India is still expected to grow in the coming years. The rising population, increasing urbanization, and growing disposable incomes are all expected to boost demand for two-wheelers in India

The total export of two-wheelers from India in June 2023 was 2,41,112 units, a decline of 31.62% from June 2022.

The top five two-wheeler exporters from India in June 2023 were:

  • Bajaj Auto (1,27,357 units)
  • Hero MotoCorp (14,236 units)
  • Royal Enfield (9,614 units)
  • TVS Motor Company (8,354 units)
  • Suzuki Motorcycle India (6,641 units)

The decline in two-wheeler exports from India in June 2023 was attributed to a number of factors, including:

  • The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, which has disrupted global supply chains
  • Rising fuel prices in the global market
  • Economic slowdown in some key export markets

Despite the decline, the two-wheeler export industry in India is still expected to grow in the coming years as EV 2 wheeler sales is picking up pace. The rising demand for two-wheelers in the global market, coupled with the increasing focus of Indian manufacturers on exports, are expected to boost two-wheeler exports from India will continue to grow.

The total car sales in India, including exports, in June 2023 was 3,28,909 units, a decline of 1.97% from May 2023 ,but an increase of 2.51% from June 2022.

The top five car manufacturers in India in terms of total sales (domestic + exports) in June 2023 were:

  • Maruti Suzuki (1,33,207 units)
  • Hyundai Motor India (50,001 units)
  • Tata Motors (47,235 units)
  • Mahindra & Mahindra (32,588 units)
  • Toyota India (19,608 units)

The decline in car sales in India, including exports, in June 2023 was attributed to a number of factors, including:

  • Rising fuel prices
  • High interest rates
  • Economic slowdown
  • Supply chain disruptions

Despite the decline, the car industry in India is still expected to grow in the coming years. The rising population, increasing urbanization, and growing disposable incomes are all expected to boost demand for cars in India in the coming years.Maybe the sales increase may come more and more from EV cars.

The development of EV ecosystem with Ola Electric, Ather Energy ,TVS,Bajaj,Hero etc. in 2 wheelers and Tata Motors,Mahindra & Mahindra ,MG etc. Cars will pave the way for EV sales to grow at a faster clip.

Muted growth in 2 wheeler and Car sales in the first quarter of FY 23-24 does not augur well for the Automobile industry unless the festival season that will start in Sep 23 should provide the momentum for the rest of the fiscal year.Fuel prices will also play a greater role in this which will determine the disposable income in the hands of the people and also the interest rate trajectory for Auto loans due to its impact on inflation.


Will GST revenue buoyancy continue for the rest of the Fiscal year 2024?

 



The GST collections trend in India upto June 2023 in FY23-24:

  • April 2023: Rs. 1,87,035 crore (highest ever)
  • May 2023: Rs. 1,57,079 crore
  • June 2023: Rs. 1,61,497 crore

The average monthly gross GST collection for the first half of FY23-24 is Rs. 1,69,000 crore. This is 12% higher than the average monthly collection for the same period in FY22-23.

The GST collections have been consistently growing in the current financial year. This is due to a number of factors, including the strong growth of the Indian economy, the increasing compliance with the GST law, and the government's efforts to boost digitization and transparency in the tax system.

The average monthly gross GST collection for the first quarter of the FY 2021-22, FY 22-23 & FY 23-24 are Rs. 1.10 lakh crore, Rs. 1.51 lakh crore and Rs. 1.69 lakh crore respectively, the finance ministry said.

The gross revenue has crossed the 1.6 lakh crore mark for the fourth time since the inception of GST in the country.

With the Economy Budgeted to grow at a Nominal Growth rate of 10.5% in this fiscal, the GOI is confident of reaching its GST revenue targets comfortably, if the same momentum is sustained for the rest of the year.

The second half of the year will be crucial in that respect since the Global recession is expected to hit the country's imports and exports and consequently this will impinge on GST revenues.

GOI and RBI may have to work with Growth supporting measures at that time.Let us cross the bridge when we come to it!

(courtesy: TOI and The ET)

How Indian Banks are performing? Less stress and Healthier!

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) released its 25th Financial Stability Report (FSR) on June 28, 2023. The report assessed the state of the Indian financial system and identified the key risks to its stability.

The report found that the Indian financial system is broadly stable, but there are some risks that need to be monitored. These risks include:

  • The rising debt levels of the corporate sector and some retail sector like credit cards which are unsecured.
  • The increasing interconnectedness of the financial system.
  • The potential for a sharp correction in asset prices due to global recession in the coming months

The report also noted that the RBI is taking steps to mitigate these risks. These steps include:

  • Raising the capital requirements for banks.
  • Strengthening the regulation of non-banking financial companies.
  • Increasing the resilience of the financial system to shocks by doing Stress tests at periodic intervals.


Here are some of the key highlights of the report:

  • The gross non-performing assets (NPAs) of banks declined to 3.9% in March 2023, from 11.5% in March 2018.
  • The report further said the banking system profitability improved with return on assets (ROA) increasing to 1.1 percent in 2023 from a low of - 0.2 percent in 2018. This, in turn, helped the capital to risk-weighted assets ratio (CRAR) 35 to reach a record high of 17.1 percent in 2023..
  • The liquidity in the financial system is adequate.Bank deposits have grown by 10% whereas Credit has grown by 15%,but due to adequate deposits accretion and various other measures by RBI,the liquidity is sufficient in the system to support growth and bring down inflation.
  • The financial system is resilient to shock
  • However it is to be noted that the RBI has taken a number of steps to improve asset quality in the banking system over the years, including:

    • Raising the provisioning requirements for banks and provisioning level has touched 70% by March 2023 unlike in the past.
    • Strengthening the asset classification framework.
    • Introducing a new resolution framework for stressed assets.
    .

The report concluded that the Indian financial system is well-positioned to withstand shocks, but there is a need to remain vigilant and take steps to monitor risks. 

Economy's health is good but the common man misses "the feel-good" factor

                               

GDP growth projections by Global Institutions of Advanced Economies and Emerging Market Economies including India are given in Table 1 herein below:

Table 1:

The above chart indicates that the GDP growth of Indian economy in Calendar year 2023 has  been revised upwards by OECD from 5.7% to 6% and downwards by World Bank from 6.6% in Jan 2023 to 6.3% in June 2023. The convergence is between 6-6.3% with RBI and Department of Economic Affairs of Ministry of Finance are projecting 6.5% growth in FY2024 with risks evenly balanced.IMF is projecting at below 6% .However all these forecasts are showing slowdown from the growth attained in the last two fiscal years at 9.1% in FY22 and 7.2% in FY23.



 Table 2:Key Fiscal Indicators (as per cent of GDP)

  

Indicator

2021-22

2022-23

2023-24

Actuals

BE

RE

PA

BE

1. Fiscal Deficit

6.75

6.44

6.43

6.36

5.92

2. Revenue Deficit

4.39

3.84

4.07

3.92

2.88

3. Primary Deficit

3.32

2.79

2.98

2.95

2.34

4. Gross Tax Revenue

11.54

10.69

11.14

11.21

11.14

5. Non-Tax Revenue

1.56

1.05

0.96

1.05

1.00

5. Revenue Expenditure

13.64

12.38

12.67

12.67

11.61

6. Capital Expenditure

2.53

2.91

2.67

2.70

3.32

(i) Capital Outlay

2.28

2.37

2.27

2.28

2.77

Notes: 1. GDP used for 2022-23 budget estimates (BE) and revised estimates (RE) is as per the Union Budget 2022-23 and 2023-24, respectively.

2. For 2022-23 (PA), the GDP used is the provisional estimates (PE), released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) on May 31, 2023.

Sources: Union Budget Documents; and Controller General of Accounts (CGA).



Table 3: Key Fiscal Indicators (as a per cent of GDP/GSDP)

Indicator

2021-22

Actuals

2022-23

2023-24

BE

BE

RE

PA

Gross Fiscal Deficit

2.8

3.4

3.1

2.8

3.2

Revenue Deficit

0.4

0.3

0.5

0.3

0.2

Primary Deficit

1.0

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.4

Tax Revenue

10.0

10.1

9.3

9.8

10.6

Non-Tax Revenue

1.1

1.3

1.0

1.0

1.2

Revenue Expenditure

14.2

15.3

13.7

13.5

14.6

Capital Expenditure

2.5

3.2

2.7

2.5

3.2

i) Capital Outlay

2.3

2.9

2.4

2.2

2.9

Note: Data for 2021-22, 2022-23 (BE) and 2022-23(PA) pertain to 31 States/ UTs and for 2022- 23 (RE) and 2023-24 (BE) pertain to 29 States/UTs. Data for 2023-24(BE) is taken as a per cent of GSDP.

Source: Budget documents of the states; Comptroller and Auditor General of India and RBI.

 

Table 2 and Table 3 indicate the fiscal health of Indian Economy as per Central Govt


and State Governments perspective. Fiscal Deficit is getting reined in at the Central 


and the States level also. The combined Fiscal Deficit is at 6.36%+2.8% i.e 9.16% .


The trajectory of this combined Fiscal deficit is showing a downward slope and this 


is important for the Economy to grow steadily with the percolation of its benefits 


to large sections of the population.


More than this, the inflation trajectory should also come down swiftly since Inflation 


is also an additional tax burden in the hands of the common man. 


Considering the Revenue buoyancy of the Central Govt.it should look at avenues to 


bring down the Excise burden on the Fossil Fuels and domestic LPG as a relief to the 


common man.The cascading effects of fossil fuel price increases will have to be


tamed by this step


GOI must also look at leaving more money in the hands of common man to prime


up Private consumption which contributes to the bulk of our GDP growth i.e almost 


55-60% of GDP.Only then the virtuous cycle of consumption and private investments


kicking in with a fervour can happen in the Economy.


Despite all the chest thumping by the Govt still 'the feel-good factor" is lacking in 


the economy.


(Courtesy:RBI'smonthly bulletin June 2023)


Passenger vehicles sales trend is encouraging for the Economy

  The Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA) released its vehicle retail data for March 2025 and the full fiscal year 2024-25 ...