India's Growth Forecast: A Positive Outlook Supported by Recent Indicators

India's Growth Forecast: A Positive Outlook Supported by Recent Indicators

Several key economic indicators for June 2024 suggest a positive growth trajectory for India:

1. GST Collection: The 7.7% year-on-year growth in GST collection signals a significant increase in economic activity. This rise indicates higher consumer spending and business transactions, reflecting a robust domestic demand.

2. Manufacturing PMI: The PMI reading of 58.3 signifies a strong expansion in the manufacturing sector. This figure indicates increased production and new orders, suggesting a healthy growth momentum in the industrial sector.

3. IIP Growth: The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) growth for April 2024 was 5%, exceeding market expectations. This indicates a broad-based recovery across various industrial sectors, contributing to overall economic growth.

4. Core Sector Growth: While core sector growth slightly slowed to 6.3% in May 2024, it still remains at a healthy level. The core sectors, accounting for over 40% of the IIP, continue to play a significant role in driving industrial output and overall economic growth.

Based on these indicators, India's growth forecast for the fiscal year 2024-25 appears promising. While there may be some challenges, such as global economic uncertainties and potential inflationary pressures, the strong domestic demand, robust manufacturing activity, and positive export performance are expected to drive economic growth in the coming months.

However, it's important to monitor these indicators closely and analyze other relevant data to get a comprehensive picture of the evolving economic landscape and adjust the growth forecast accordingly. Recent data on exports, current account surplus, and forex reserves for June 2024 also indicate a robust growth trajectory for the Indian economy on the external front:

1. Exports: Merchandise exports for May 2024 showed a healthy growth of 12.51%, reaching USD 38.94 billion. This growth was driven by strong demand for engineering goods, petroleum products, and gems and jewelry. For Q1 2024, overall exports grew by 10.3% YoY, indicating a sustained positive trend in international trade.

2. Current Account Surplus: India recorded a current account surplus of 0.6% of GDP in Q4 FY24, the first surplus since Q4 FY21. This surplus was primarily due to higher services exports and remittances, showcasing a strong performance in the services sector and improved external balance.

3. Forex Reserves: India's foreign exchange reserves reached a record high of $654 billion by the end of June 2024. This increase was mainly due to robust capital inflows, higher services exports, and a narrowing current account deficit. Strong forex reserves provide a buffer against external shocks and bolster investor confidence.

Together, these figures suggest a resilient and competitive Indian economy on the global stage. The growth in exports reflects the increasing demand for Indian goods and services in international markets, while the current account surplus and rising forex reserves demonstrate a healthy external balance and strong financial position.

These positive developments on the external front, combined with the robust domestic indicators mentioned earlier, paint a promising picture for India's economic growth in the coming months. While global uncertainties persist, the Indian economy appears well-positioned to navigate challenges and sustain its growth momentum.

Some reforms which Modi Government can look at!

 1) the new Central Govt should look at the possibility of creating a "Stock Options scheme exclusively for BPL/Unorganised sector families" of a basket of Top 500 NSE/BSE cos.which can b used to distribute Stock Market wealth to these poor, through their contribution and a matching contribution by Govt.

2)Already inflation is the biggest Tax.On top of it Salaried Middle class regularly pay Tax .Diminishing marginal utility of income theory suggests that value for money for them is high and By paying Income tax upfront thro TDS before even their Salaries r credited to their accounts, it is the Salaried middle class that bears the onslaught of Tax increases with diminishing income values due to inflation.Through their Taxes they support both Big Farmers , Wealthy Politicians and Businessmen.

3)When Supply side is adequate thro free imports, only cost-push inflation can happen,and it has receded once commodity prices have come down.

4)In the present NPS, many retired r saying the pension income is not 50% of last drawn salary, it also fluctuates and there is no revision considering cost of inflation.If these r addressed thro proper restructuring of NPS,that should be acceptable to retirees.

5) Judicial reforms especially number of adjournments should be strictly restricted with relaxations to be made available only by Chief Justices of the respective Courts.

6)All Ministers in Centre and State Govts, MPs,MLAs,MLCs and other PEPs and their immediate relatives should compulsorily take treatments only in Government Hospitals and their Children must study only in Government Schools.

For Modi3.0, some low hanging fruits!!

 1)Bringing Indian fugitives like Vijay Mallya, Nirav Modi to be done on war footing signalling strong msg;

2) all Ministers, sitting MPs, MLAs , other PEPs,and their Kins' Agricultural Incomes must b taxed under Income tax w/o any exemption; 

3) instead of Capital Gain taxes please introduce real estate transaction tax, gold & diamond etc jewellery TT like STT . 

4)STT for unlisted Co shares can be introduced. Even for Listed Shares, STT can be slightly increased and cumbersome Capital Gain tax can b removed

5)"News Channels" of all Politically Exposed Persons or run by their relatives or funded by them or controlled by them should be banned. They can run entertainment or other channels but should not be allowed any "News" content to be telecast.

6)All Local Bodies Tax, EB Tariff, User charges for Water, Drainage etc. may be CPI Inflation Indexed with +/- 1%

7)Remove all zero rated GST on products and introduce atleast 1% GST with eligibility for input tax credit not exceeding 1% on input costs.

The above are some of my recommendations to Modi for plucking some low hanging fruits to make maximum impact.

Stock Options for BPL families- A Bottoms Up! approach for Modi 3.0

 Modi 3.0 is facing primarily two crises:

1)Unemployment and Under employment or lack of adequate jobs that pay well.

2)Widening of gap between the top 1% of the population and the bottom 50%;

Price rise, inflation , stagnating Private Consumption Expenditure, feeling of high GST and IT rates among the youth are all problems of Expenditure when there are incomes and gainful employment.

Unemployment hits the Bottom of the Pyramid more severely than at the top of the Pyramid.

Economists and Political Thinkers have proposed solutions like encouraging  and or incentivising the labour-intensive manufacturing and services sector in rural and semi-urban areas.

This is doable but whether such jobs are sustainable in the long run is a million dollar question say e.g Textiles etc.May be Cement , Steel and other metal manufacturing may have long term prospects but Pollution Control becomes a difficult task on hand.

 Private Final Consumption Expenditure is languishing for two reasons

1)primarily because of Rural distress exacerbated by poor monsoon last year

2) Pentup demand after Covid drove PFCE higher last year and so on top of that it has moderately increased by 4% in the current year.

The major question of wealth distribution can be attempted through Stock market.

1)Poor i.e BPL families and families of labourers from Unorganised Sector can be asked to subscribe to a Group Fund by making a SIP contribution starting from Re1 and Govt on its part can contribute an equal amount every year.

2)This Corpus Fund can then subscribe to the basket of top 500 of NSE/BSE Companies.This basket can be given at a discount of 25% to Market price thro a special SEBI legislation and when the subscriber wants to opt out, he can be allowed to sell to the Corpus at a premium of say 10% to the prevailing Market price.

3)This will be a kind of Stock Options for BPL families and the scheme can be modified to suit the ground realities.

Weekend musings!!

 "பரதனுக்கோ ராமனின் 

 பாதுகா  காப்பு  ;

ராம ராஜ்யமே 

பாரதத்துக்கு பாதுகாப்பு இன்று  !!" 

                                      ====><====

மக்கான மக்கள் நாம் 

மக்காத பிளாஸ்டிக் குப்பை சேர்த்து 

வக்கற்ற  மாக்களின் 

வயிற்றைக்  கிழித்தோம் 😓

மக்காத குப்பை மக்(கு)களையும்  விழுங்குமோ !

                                    ====><====

சாராயக்கடை - சா(ராய)க்கடை !

'சாக்'கடை -சாகப்போகும் கடை ;

சுருக்கமா மயானம் !

Indian Core Sector growth and IIP growth show upswing

 The combined Index of Eight Core Industries (ICI) increased by 6.2 per cent (provisional) in April, 2024 as compared to the Index in April, 2023.The Core Industries Index increased by 6 % in March 2024. The production of Electricity, Natural Gas, Coal, Steel, Refinery Products, Crude Oil and Cement recorded positive growth in April 2024 and only Fertilisers showed a marginal decline in April 2024.The last few years trend data given below will provide important inputs as to the growth of this Core Sectors in India:

Industrial output as measured by IIP in India rose by 4.9% on an annual basis in March 2024, slightly below market expectations of a 5.1% growth. Manufacturing output which accounts for nearly 78% of total industrial production, expanded by 5.2% with surged growth noted for metal products exc. machinery (+20.3%), electrical equipment (+14%), transport equipment (+25.4%) and furniture (+31%). Moreover, output was also higher for mining (+1.2%) and electricity (+8.6%). source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI)

According to the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation (MoSPI), India's Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for March 2024 was 159.2, with a base of 2011-12. This represents a 4.9% year-on-year growth in factory output, which is a slight decrease from the 5.6% growth in February 2024. The mining sector's performance was a major factor in the slowdown, with its index at 156.1 for March 2024. However, other sectors, such as manufacturing and electricity, saw growth, with indices of 155.1 and 204.2 respectively. Within the manufacturing sector, the manufacture of basic metals, pharmaceuticals, and other transport equipment all contributed to the IIP's growth

Courtesy:Trading Economics website

S&P revision of India's outlook to "Positive" from "Stable"; RBI analysis says growth momentum is picking up in FY24-25.

 S&P Global Ratings revised India's outlook to "Positive" from "Stable" in May 2024, while affirming the 'BBB-' long-term sovereign credit ratings. This indicates that there is a possibility of an upgrade to 'BBB' in the future, but the timeline is not specified.

S&P mentioned that they may raise the ratings if they observe:

• Sustained improvement in the central bank's monetary policy effectiveness and credibility, leading to a durably lower inflation rate over time.
• Continued robust economic growth that strengthens India's external position.
• Further consolidation of the government's fiscal position, leading to a declining net general government debt/GDP ratio.

The actual upgrade to 'BBB' will depend on India's performance in these areas over the next 12-24 months. If India continues to demonstrate strong economic fundamentals and effective policymaking, an upgrade is likely within this timeframe. However, if there are significant setbacks or a reversal of positive trends, the upgrade may be delayed or not happen at all.

It is important to note that credit rating decisions are complex and depend on various factors, including global economic conditions and geopolitical events. Therefore, while the "Positive" outlook is a positive sign, it does not guarantee an upgrade to 'BBB'.

The net general government debt/GDP ratio for India currently stands at around 81.68% as of 2022, according to Statista. This indicates the total amount of debt owed by the government relative to the size of the economy.

S&P has not explicitly stated a target net general government debt/GDP ratio that India needs to achieve for an upgrade. However, they have indicated that they expect to see a declining trend in this ratio as one of the conditions for a potential upgrade. This implies that India needs to demonstrate a continued commitment to fiscal consolidation and debt reduction to meet S&P's expectations.

Based on recent trends and S&P's commentary, a gradual reduction in the debt/GDP ratio over the next 12-24 months would likely be seen as a positive signal by the rating agency. The pace and extent of this reduction will depend on various factors, including economic growth, fiscal policies, and interest rates.

It is important to note that while a declining debt/GDP ratio is crucial, it is not the sole determinant of a credit rating upgrade. S&P will also assess other factors like inflation, economic growth, and external position before making a decision.

 The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its Annual Report on the Indian Economy for FY24-25 has expressed optimism about the growth prospects for the Indian economy. This optimism is based on several factors including:

• Resilient domestic demand: Despite global headwinds, domestic consumption and investment demand have remained strong, supported by government initiatives and a rebound in private sector activity.
• Moderating inflation: The RBI has successfully brought down inflation to within its target range, providing a stable macroeconomic environment for growth.
• Strong external sector: India's foreign exchange reserves are at comfortable levels and the current account deficit remains manageable, providing a buffer against external shocks.
• Supportive government policies: The government's focus on infrastructure development, digitization, and ease of doing business is expected to improve the long-term growth potential of the economy.

The RBI has projected a real GDP growth rate of 7% for FY25, indicating a continued momentum of economic activity. This growth is expected to be broad-based, with contributions from both the manufacturing and services sectors.

However, the RBI also acknowledged the potential risks to the outlook, including:

• Global economic slowdown: A slowdown in global growth could adversely impact India's exports and overall economic activity.
• Geopolitical tensions: Escalating geopolitical tensions could disrupt global supply chains and increase uncertainty, leading to a flight of capital from emerging markets like India.
• Climate change-related risks: The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events could disrupt agricultural production and infrastructure, impacting economic growth.

Overall, the RBI's assessment suggests that the Indian economy is well-positioned for growth in FY24-25, but it is important to remain vigilant about the potential risks and uncertainties. The RBI's policy stance will continue to be data-driven and focused on maintaining macroeconomic stability while supporting sustainable growth.