GDP growth projections by Global Institutions of Advanced Economies and Emerging Market Economies including India are given in Table 1 herein below:
Table 1:
Table 2:Key Fiscal Indicators (as a per cent of GDP)
|
Indicator |
2021-22 |
2022-23 |
2023-24 |
||
|
Actuals |
BE |
RE |
PA |
BE |
|
|
1. Fiscal Deficit |
6.75 |
6.44 |
6.43 |
6.36 |
5.92 |
|
2. Revenue Deficit |
4.39 |
3.84 |
4.07 |
3.92 |
2.88 |
|
3. Primary Deficit |
3.32 |
2.79 |
2.98 |
2.95 |
2.34 |
|
4. Gross Tax Revenue |
11.54 |
10.69 |
11.14 |
11.21 |
11.14 |
|
5. Non-Tax Revenue |
1.56 |
1.05 |
0.96 |
1.05 |
1.00 |
|
5. Revenue
Expenditure |
13.64 |
12.38 |
12.67 |
12.67 |
11.61 |
|
6. Capital
Expenditure |
2.53 |
2.91 |
2.67 |
2.70 |
3.32 |
|
(i) Capital Outlay |
2.28 |
2.37 |
2.27 |
2.28 |
2.77 |
Notes: 1. GDP used for 2022-23
budget estimates (BE) and revised
estimates (RE) is as per the Union Budget 2022-23 and 2023-24, respectively.
2. For 2022-23 (PA), the GDP used is the provisional estimates (PE), released
by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) on May 31, 2023.
Sources: Union Budget Documents; and Controller General of
Accounts (CGA).
Table 3: Key Fiscal Indicators (as a per cent of GDP/GSDP)
|
Indicator |
2021-22 Actuals |
2022-23 |
2023-24 BE |
||
|
BE |
RE |
PA |
|||
|
Gross Fiscal Deficit |
2.8 |
3.4 |
3.1 |
2.8 |
3.2 |
|
Revenue Deficit |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
|
Primary Deficit |
1.0 |
1.6 |
1.4 |
1.2 |
1.4 |
|
Tax Revenue |
10.0 |
10.1 |
9.3 |
9.8 |
10.6 |
|
Non-Tax Revenue |
1.1 |
1.3 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
1.2 |
|
Revenue Expenditure |
14.2 |
15.3 |
13.7 |
13.5 |
14.6 |
|
Capital Expenditure |
2.5 |
3.2 |
2.7 |
2.5 |
3.2 |
|
i) Capital Outlay |
2.3 |
2.9 |
2.4 |
2.2 |
2.9 |
Note: Data for 2021-22, 2022-23 (BE) and 2022-23(PA)
pertain to 31 States/ UTs and for
2022- 23 (RE) and 2023-24
(BE) pertain to 29 States/UTs.
Data
for 2023-24(BE) is taken as a per
cent of GSDP.
Source: Budget documents of the states;
Comptroller and Auditor
General of India
and RBI.
Table 2 and Table 3 indicate the fiscal health of Indian Economy as per Central Govt
and State Governments perspective. Fiscal Deficit is getting reined in at the Central
and the States level also. The combined Fiscal Deficit is at 6.36%+2.8% i.e 9.16% .
The trajectory of this combined Fiscal deficit is showing a downward slope and this
is important for the Economy to grow steadily with the percolation of its benefits
to large sections of the population.
More than this, the inflation trajectory should also come down swiftly since Inflation
is also an additional tax burden in the hands of the common man.
Considering the Revenue buoyancy of the Central Govt.it should look at avenues to
bring down the Excise burden on the Fossil Fuels and domestic LPG as a relief to the
common man.The cascading effects of fossil fuel price increases will have to be
tamed by this step
GOI must also look at leaving more money in the hands of common man to prime
up Private consumption which contributes to the bulk of our GDP growth i.e almost
55-60% of GDP.Only then the virtuous cycle of consumption and private investments
kicking in with a fervour can happen in the Economy.
Despite all the chest thumping by the Govt still 'the feel-good factor" is lacking in
the economy.
(Courtesy:RBI'smonthly bulletin June 2023)
