Open society and its friends!

 Karl Popper wrote in his book "Open society and its enemies"  that Paradox of Tolerance leads to more intolerance. He explained that in order to maintain a tolerant society,the society itself must be intolerant of the intolerant. He openly borrows his idea from Plato's concept of Benevolent despotism or benevolent dictatorship.

Indians have understood this contradiction in governance and according to the best of statecrafts defined by them State Governance has four ways of taking action : Sama,Dhana , Bheda and Dhanda. When it should actively encourage dharmic ways of living, it should seek out and identify those who are bent upon disturbing this peaceful coexistence. It may be its own citizens or enemies from outside. For dealing with them it should employ the above four ways and it can move from one to another subtly, discreetly or sometimes directly. Dhanda is always the last resort and even for criminal acts and for offenders, punishment is a must. This is intolerance of the intolerant. Punishments should be given after speedy and fair inquiry and justice must be seen to be delivered without delay. This will have a deterrent effect.

However the contrast is to see who are Friends of Open society. Friends are Those who forge consensus, those who encourage cohesion, those who believe in cooperation, those who trust collaboration, those who practice transparent communication, and those who want syncretic, synergistic community development.

The tolerance towards genuine failures, mistakes in trying to invent, missteps in search of progress will go a long way in supporting open societies that are productive and supportive in the long run. When the societies are young in age such openness provides the youth power to blossom out full harnessing its potential.

But, many times, these friends of open society work in silence and with lot of patience. But earnestness, perseverance and persistence are their hallmarks. Friends of Open society will always build checks and balances to prevent even unintended misuse of power, influence, nepotism etc.

When Voltaire declared Liberty as the fulcrum of modern human society, he meant , civil liberties, freedom of expression and freedom of religion. He is widely believed to have written "I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it." Those who subscribe to his views are all Friends of Open society.Such open societies will bring forth positive changes in human dynamics and nurture inventions, innovations in all spheres of life from poetry ,arts to physics,biology.All this leads to prosperity in society and the virtuous cycle is set in motion.

It is our bounden duty to identify and safeguard these Friends of Society who are pillars of Tolerance and not to discredit them wantonly by imputing intolerance.

Inflation, Monetary policy and India

 The minutes of the recent meeting of Monetary Policy Committee  of RBi which were released this week, contain some interesting mentions. One of the news columns said that RBI minutes mention 'uncertainty' 12 times, 'growth' 43 times and 'inflation' 147 times It has expressed concern over inflation and it seems to be valid as CPI has remained above 6% which is more than the tolerance limit of RBI. Alongside, India is experiencing severe GDP growth pangs as its IIP has remained in the negative territory in the first quarter and in July also. Services sector is in a deeper mess except of course ITES, SAAS etc. which have been affected to a lesser extent. It looks like only Agri sector has not been impacted adversely so far ,as the progress of monsoon has been satisfactory and the spatial dispersion also fairly good.

The RBI Deputy Governor Mr.Michael Patra had said : "If inflation persists above the upper tolerance band for one more quarter, monetary policy will be constrained by the mandate to undertake remedial action, including an immediate and more than a proportionate response to head off the build-up of inflation pressures and prevent it from getting generalized." So, to sum it up ,we have classic case of "stagflation"- a combo of GDP slowdown and inflation.!

CPI in India has a higher weightage for food and fuel indices and these two are certainly not amenable to monetary policy measures. In India fuel price is driven more by Govt . policy measures and it is feeding into inflation with its rippling effects on the rest of the economy widespread.When pandemic is restricting economic activities profiteering becomes rampant in vegetable and food prices. When the supply chain and free movement of people and commodities happen, the inflation tendencies will come down. Cost push inflation of food prices will not listen to monetary policy signals in the short term in Indian conditions. As India is driven more by cash , there is a quite a lag in food inflation responding to monetary policy measures, if at all it is significant. May be hoarding and black marketing of these vegetables,cereals ,staples etc. may come down a little bit.However Govt. initiatives through Essential commodities and anti-hoarding sticks used by Govt. through other means incl. emergency imports may be more effective in the short term to bring down food prices.

When the economy is awash with liquidity, the prices in general have tendencies to go north .More so when the supply constraints remain elevated due to lockdowns,e-passes and uncertainties compounded by fear for life and livelihood affecting the income. In these circumstances. RBI should look at high CPI as extraordinary during the pandemic period and should start looking at Core inflation now and then revert back to CPI only after the pandemic is seen plateauing.In the meantime, RBI may seek a temporary amendment for its inflation targeting, switching to Core inflation in times of extraordinary circumstances like a pandemic,global financial crises etc. and then have a glide path back to CPI inflation targeting after the crest of the crises is over.

Plato's Cave theory and Advaita!

 Plato in his magnum opus Republic has given an Allegory of the Cave which is widely called Cave Theory to emphasise on the lack of education on our nature which is similar to the prisoners inside the cave .Prisoners inside the cave see only images of reflection which are only shadows of the reality in the dim light.Plato being the disciple of Socrates has written this as a dialogue between his brother and Socrates. The prisoners free themselves from the bonded chains in the caves and come out and see that what they have experienced is not reality but reality outside the cave exists. This allegory shows that the human senses when chained to the cave do not allow humans to think beyond the cave images. In this allegory Plato keeps mathematics, geometry and deductive logic at the third and highest level of education.

There is a similarity of this to Indian philosophy of Advaita, in which in simple terms it is said that what we experience is not the reality and it is more like an illusion what we dream in our sleep. Adi sankara when explaining this illusory phenomenon says that this happens due to Avidya or lack of education which is awareness. When we realise our true self we become one with our Creator and realise there is only one Absolute and there is no second- "A dvaita"- only" Brahmam Sathya" and this "Jagat(Earth) Mythya(myth/illusion)".

So in a way both the concepts of philosophy talk about Education or lack of it and its effect, impact on human understanding. Human minds are conditioned by experiences, perceptions and memory impressions and their interplay, without comprehension of the reality or the true nature of human existence.

Bhagawan Krishna in his Gita also emphasizes on this Avidya (Chapter 4)and suggests ways to come out of it(chapter 5). The best and the easiest way is to surrender our ego to Bhagwan and continue with our duty selflessly without any attachment to the fruits of our actions.

TReDS AND GST PORTAL

GST portal has come a long way from a fledgling,fumbling and faltering days to its better days.However it has go a long way to evolve into a mature and more user-friendly phase. Now Central Govt is introducing e Invoicing with unique Invoice Reference Number (IRN) for traceability and matching concept introduction. This IRN will be given by Govt and this is to identify whether it is a valid e Invoice .

This numbering system will be similar to cheque MICR no. for the purpose of verifying the genuineness and also for the use in matching it for clearing mechanism. This IRN will also serve similar purposes.More than bigger companies this system will help MSMEs in the longer run.

For MSME bill discounting some of the banks like Axis Bank have introduced a digital platform called TREds so that MSMEs can access cheaper bank finance against their supply invoices. Ministry of Corporate Affairs have also made it mandatory for all Corporates with a turnover of Rs.500 cr and above to register under this for all their MSME suppliers to take advantage of this bill financing platform which will help them in working capital.My suggestion is that TREdS ,which is a standalone platform of the Axis bank, may be linked and integrated with the GST portal so that ,MSMEs need not have to again look for another software to do E invoicing and generating Eway bill through GST portal. If this linking is done ,as and when Eway bill/E invoicing is done in GST portal/software, it is enough to take it to TREds platform and any duplication and time loss can be totally avoided. This will also be a great marketing tool for quicker Adoption of TREds as mandated by MCA.RBI and MCA, MOF and MSME ministries will have to work together to do this immediately which will be a great boon for MSMEs making it easy for them to do business.

Today there is a heartening news that Cabinet  has approved the budget decision to amend Factor Regulation Act 2011 to allow non-banking finance companies(NBFCs) to extend invoice financing to the MSMEs through TReDS, an electronic platform  for facilitating discounting of trade receivables. 

Now Govt should also takeup this digital linking of TReDS and GST portal softwares for MSMEs to really usher in ease of doing business and paying GST .This will also indirectly help Central Govt garnering higher GST revenues through widening of tax base

US, India and Kamala!

 Independence day in India is always a grand event as it happens on August 15th of the year. A year has 365 days and if you have a cut off at Aug 15th ,it is 227 days into the year starting from Jan 1st..This is approx 1.66:1 of the year. That is the Golden Ratio which is supposed to be a mystic proportion of anything including the picture of Mona Lisa ,and that is considered to have made it magically beautiful.

That apart, Indian Independence day this year was preceded by the announcement of Kamala Harris as the running mate of the US democratic presidential candidate Biden.

Kamala Harris' mother was of Indian origin from Chennai. She carries the name Kamala which is a traditional Sanskrit name for Lotus flower. Indian ruling party BJP has Lotus symbol as its primary identity. The moot point is , the common least denominator between the ruling party of india and US politician Kamala ,is the Lotus . In many ways, Lotus i.e Kamal is very dear to india and it is the official flower of the country also.

From time immemorial in all the Indian Sanskrit scriptures and literature, Lotus has come to be identified with the cultural and religious sanctity.It holds a premier position in Hindu/Buddhist/Jain/Sikh religions as representative of all that is blemishless and purity. Many of the Hindu,incl. Buddhist etc. Gods or Goddesses are seen seated on the Lotus flower as it symbolizes purity in full bloom. Offering Lotus to Hindu Gods and Goddesses is believed to usher in , auspiciousness and prosperity into the lives of devotees. Even our heart is called Hridaya kamala in our literature. In higher philosophy,'Ka' is referred to as Brahman(paramatma), 'Ma' is referred to as Human(jeevatma), and 'La' is referred to as Acharya or Sri, who tirelessly work in uniting the Jeevatma with the Paramatma.

But it looks like the connection between Kamala Harris and India seems to end with Kamala and not beyond that, since the general social and political outlook of BJP and Kamal harris are totally divergent.They do not share a common platform of understanding of the fabric of Indian society, which is inherently plural and democratic. She has shared her opinion of Indian ruling class , relationships with Pak, Kashmir problems etc. seen through the prism of US and not through the prism of India. Pak and Bangladesh are offsprings of India and it is not sibling rivalry that bogs down India-Pak relationships as viewed by US generally. 

To that extent , I humbly believe, Kamala Harris will have to borrow an Indian prism to look at Indian subcontinent issues, since almost 7 countries(India, Pak, Bangladesh, Afghan,Nepal,Bhutan and SriLanka of South Asia were all part of Bharat i.e India ,till the advent of the 20th century.The cultural and religious relationships and influence of India extend beyond this to China, especially Tibet and all the South east Asian countries incl. Japan, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia etc.

Finally, she should not forget that India is a 70year old thriving democracy and that too the largest democracy in the world sharing many similarities with US, which Columbus thought to be India!!

Import Trade restrictions and Make in India-Atmanirbhar!

 Import Trade wall or barriers are not new to India. The country had very steep walls in terms of Tariffs, licensing ,quotas etc. all in the name of safeguarding the domestic industry. When the country gained independence, many of the industries were either nascent or anemic and in order to restore their health, Central Govt had no option but to erect some import restrictions so that local industries in the economy are nurtured. This grooming of domestic industry with level playing field took a new turn in the late 1960s and 1970s with widespread nationalisation of private enterprises, ushering in an era of erratic socialism all in the name of protecting the citizens from private profiteering.

This concept led to erecting walls within the country between the commanding heights of Govt. undertakings and the Private enterprises. The private sector was neglected and was left to fend for itself and scaling up an enterprise became a uphill challenge for private sector. Inorder to protect them from imports from manufacturing bases around the world with deep pockets several safeguard duties and tariff walls were made stiff .

But all this had a negative side effects as the local industry became flabby, lethargic,self seeking, ignoring Tech.upgradation, without stiff market competition on Quality , Cost and Delivery.All this was done with the good intention of making India self restraint through import substitution. But the unintended consequences of this led to high cost of manufacuring and poor quality product.This situation was reversed when GOI started reducing tariffs and import restrictions through some pragmatic steps inviting foreign direct investments in the early 1990s.

By the time we missed the bus and Chinese who started this in 1980s had a clear headstart over us. Our two steps forward and one step backward strategy in all these matters of import policy were designed by bureaucrats with the hidden intent of rent seeking politicians, businessmen and babus behind it.

Only after the advent of Japanese, US ,German and South korean companies started their manufacturing bases in India , Quality, Cost and Delivery gained attention and became the guiding lodetones of enterprises keeping them lean and mean. This tough market competition has helped India in achieving the pinnacle of success in Auto sector especially in becoming World's top two wheeler manufacturing base.

That said , now there is lot of discussion on Govt's announcement of Trade tariffs for imports from China and licesing and ban on import of defence equipments,  high end TVs etc. The heated debate of back to the moribund policy of import restrictions in the name of Make in India- Atmanirbhar Bharat is indeed a good one.  

Does this mean back to the future?

But there can be an argument in terms of supporting this policy of  import restrictions.

When fledgling industry is sought to be setup like in high end tech products, these specific products may require some sort of support or sops for a initial few years. When foreign direct investment is invited for huge sunrise industries, such import walls will be helpful but all but temporarily. If there is a sunset clause introduced for all these tariff or sops or subsidies, it should be welcome. Govt. should make it a point to insert a sunset clause for all these import walls except in very few strategic sectors which may not exceed five on the whole.Govt should not give an impression that it is interested in augmenting its tax revenue through these high import duties.

India has given a great fillip to Make in India- Atmanirbhar in some of the industries like Auto, Smartphones etc which has generated huge employment opportunities in the country. Inorder to give a temporary boost to this policy, Govt has done the right thing by introducing few Tariff walls in order to promote the above stated policy  and these Tariff barriers should neither be seen as a way of revenue rising, nor as a permanent fixture to protect the domestic industry.

Covid, Cricket and Character!

 Cricket has weathered many a winter and smothered many a vagary as a gentleman's game. Cricket was played during Spanish flu times also and UK's Wisden has not recorded any disruption in the progress of the cricket season in 1918 and 1919. But Cricket was severely restricted during World war 1 when all the major cricket playing nations were involved in the war.Cricket was also played less during World War II since England was involved in the war in full measure. But during all these periods of distress, Cricket was played in India with the least disruptions.

In fact, Wisden which has recorded death of English cricketers during World War 1 and 2 in all cricket playing nations , has not even mentioned one indian cricketer dying during Spanish flu days.This has to be seen in the light of total death toll of 17 million who died in india during Spanish flu years.

So even in 1918 and during World wars everybody around the world believed that India could somehow manage and survive humanitarian crises.

But this Covid 19 apart from being a dangerous pandemic , has also become a statistician's delight. of course not as enjoyable as cricket statistics. But still there is a everyday scorecard and the top states are vying with each other to remain on top with highest Covid 19 nos. Tracking, Tracing , Testing and Treating has given huge opportunities for multifold statistics and different tools to be employed across the country and the globe.

there are 3 day moving average, 5 day average, 7 day moving averages of tested, positive, discharged, active, deaths etc.etc. and colorful graphs of percentage growths of each one of them which compete with each other for eyeball grabs.

All the news channels have a separate ticker like in a Cricket match and hour to hour scores update pushes up your BP and make you a Covid patient , if not one already. Many people have stopped seeing news reporting in any channel and if they see one by mistake wait with bated breath,holding their chests with clenched fists as if hearing an India scorecard in a World cup cricket match.

Of course, the statisticians, epidemiologists, virologists give dire prediction every 15 days constantly reminding us that Covid nos. will surge and there will be a deluge in the next two months and this has been going on for the last 4 months.They have been predicting wildly exaggerated nos. and some statisticians can track all these predicted nos. of various agencies and give out the comparisons with the actuals. Such comparisons can provide another play with graphs, colours etc.

In all this round-robin play what is missing is character.Only few have been able to hold their forte not to rock the boat and rattle the gullible.Like lenders and banks looking for people with character to lend ,this pandemic has given a clarion call to those with character to come to the rescue. You can find people with capital, capacity to repay but finding a person with Character ,which is willingness to repay, is difficult. Character being  a rare commodity in these days of rising NPAs,  Bankers will nod their heads in agreement with me. In Cricket also we have seen people like Rahul Dravid, the Wall, VVS Lakshman, who have displayed great character to steady the ship, in crisis situations. Cricket captains like Mike Brearley of England, Pataudi and Dhoni of india, have shown stoic demeanour in the face of dire situations while leading their Teams. But a World cup winning cricket captain Imran Khan is the PM of Pakistan during this pandemic.But like in his heydays he is spitting venom at his rivals even outside the cricket arena. Is Cricket not making PM ,a gentleman? 

However,  I am not losing hope since our PM, himself, is a man who displays great Character even if he has not played cricket and is known to have sold & served Tea perhaps even during Tea breaks while others were busy playing Test Cricket!!

Be cautious and there is no need to spread fear and panic about both Covid and Economy! Drink hot Tea and take good rest!