Blogging about Society, individual and collective behaviour/herd mentality, nudges,economics,business,politics,sports and spirituality and on all the other subjects about which I know very little !!
GST portal has come a long way from a fledgling,fumbling and faltering days to its better days.However it has go a long way to evolve into a mature and more user-friendly phase. Now Central Govt is introducing e Invoicing with unique Invoice Reference Number (IRN) for traceability and matching concept introduction. This IRN will be given by Govt and this is to identify whether it is a valid e Invoice .
This numbering system will be similar to cheque MICR no. for the purpose of verifying the genuineness and also for the use in matching it for clearing mechanism. This IRN will also serve similar purposes.More than bigger companies this system will help MSMEs in the longer run.
For MSME bill discounting some of the banks like Axis Bank have introduced a digital platform called TREds so that MSMEs can access cheaper bank finance against their supply invoices. Ministry of Corporate Affairs have also made it mandatory for all Corporates with a turnover of Rs.500 cr and above to register under this for all their MSME suppliers to take advantage of this bill financing platform which will help them in working capital.My suggestion is that TREdS ,which is a standalone platform of the Axis bank, may be linked and integrated with the GST portal so that ,MSMEs need not have to again look for another software to do E invoicing and generating Eway bill through GST portal. If this linking is done ,as and when Eway bill/E invoicing is done in GST portal/software, it is enough to take it to TREds platform and any duplication and time loss can be totally avoided. This will also be a great marketing tool for quicker Adoption of TREds as mandated by MCA.RBI and MCA, MOF and MSME ministries will have to work together to do this immediately which will be a great boon for MSMEs making it easy for them to do business.
Today there is a heartening news that Cabinet has approved the budget decision to amend Factor Regulation Act 2011 to allow non-banking finance companies(NBFCs) to extend invoice financing to the MSMEs through TReDS, an electronic platform for facilitating discounting of trade receivables.
Now Govt should also takeup this digital linking of TReDS and GST portal softwares for MSMEs to really usher in ease of doing business and paying GST .This will also indirectly help Central Govt garnering higher GST revenues through widening of tax base
Independence day in India is always a grand event as it happens on August 15th of the year. A year has 365 days and if you have a cut off at Aug 15th ,it is 227 days into the year starting from Jan 1st..This is approx 1.66:1 of the year. That is the Golden Ratio which is supposed to be a mystic proportion of anything including the picture of Mona Lisa ,and that is considered to have made it magically beautiful.
That apart, Indian Independence day this year was preceded by the announcement of Kamala Harris as the running mate of the US democratic presidential candidate Biden.
Kamala Harris' mother was of Indian origin from Chennai. She carries the name Kamala which is a traditional Sanskrit name for Lotus flower. Indian ruling party BJP has Lotus symbol as its primary identity. The moot point is , the common least denominator between the ruling party of india and US politician Kamala ,is the Lotus . In many ways, Lotus i.e Kamal is very dear to india and it is the official flower of the country also.
From time immemorial in all the Indian Sanskrit scriptures and literature, Lotus has come to be identified with the cultural and religious sanctity.It holds a premier position in Hindu/Buddhist/Jain/Sikh religions as representative of all that is blemishless and purity. Many of the Hindu,incl. Buddhist etc. Gods or Goddesses are seen seated on the Lotus flower as it symbolizes purity in full bloom. Offering Lotus to Hindu Gods and Goddesses is believed to usher in , auspiciousness and prosperity into the lives of devotees. Even our heart is called Hridaya kamala in our literature. In higher philosophy,'Ka' is referred to as Brahman(paramatma), 'Ma' is referred to as Human(jeevatma), and 'La' is referred to as Acharya or Sri, who tirelessly work in uniting the Jeevatma with the Paramatma.
But it looks like the connection between Kamala Harris and India seems to end with Kamala and not beyond that, since the general social and political outlook of BJP and Kamal harris are totally divergent.They do not share a common platform of understanding of the fabric of Indian society, which is inherently plural and democratic. She has shared her opinion of Indian ruling class , relationships with Pak, Kashmir problems etc. seen through the prism of US and not through the prism of India. Pak and Bangladesh are offsprings of India and it is not sibling rivalry that bogs down India-Pak relationships as viewed by US generally.
To that extent , I humbly believe, Kamala Harris will have to borrow an Indian prism to look at Indian subcontinent issues, since almost 7 countries(India, Pak, Bangladesh, Afghan,Nepal,Bhutan and SriLanka of South Asia were all part of Bharat i.e India ,till the advent of the 20th century.The cultural and religious relationships and influence of India extend beyond this to China, especially Tibet and all the South east Asian countries incl. Japan, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia etc.
Finally, she should not forget that India is a 70year old thriving democracy and that too the largest democracy in the world sharing many similarities with US, which Columbus thought to be India!!
Import Trade wall or barriers are not new to India. The country had very steep walls in terms of Tariffs, licensing ,quotas etc. all in the name of safeguarding the domestic industry. When the country gained independence, many of the industries were either nascent or anemic and in order to restore their health, Central Govt had no option but to erect some import restrictions so that local industries in the economy are nurtured. This grooming of domestic industry with level playing field took a new turn in the late 1960s and 1970s with widespread nationalisation of private enterprises, ushering in an era of erratic socialism all in the name of protecting the citizens from private profiteering.
This concept led to erecting walls within the country between the commanding heights of Govt. undertakings and the Private enterprises. The private sector was neglected and was left to fend for itself and scaling up an enterprise became a uphill challenge for private sector. Inorder to protect them from imports from manufacturing bases around the world with deep pockets several safeguard duties and tariff walls were made stiff .
But all this had a negative side effects as the local industry became flabby, lethargic,self seeking, ignoring Tech.upgradation, without stiff market competition on Quality , Cost and Delivery.All this was done with the good intention of making India self restraint through import substitution. But the unintended consequences of this led to high cost of manufacuring and poor quality product.This situation was reversed when GOI started reducing tariffs and import restrictions through some pragmatic steps inviting foreign direct investments in the early 1990s.
By the time we missed the bus and Chinese who started this in 1980s had a clear headstart over us. Our two steps forward and one step backward strategy in all these matters of import policy were designed by bureaucrats with the hidden intent of rent seeking politicians, businessmen and babus behind it.
Only after the advent of Japanese, US ,German and South korean companies started their manufacturing bases in India , Quality, Cost and Delivery gained attention and became the guiding lodetones of enterprises keeping them lean and mean. This tough market competition has helped India in achieving the pinnacle of success in Auto sector especially in becoming World's top two wheeler manufacturing base.
That said , now there is lot of discussion on Govt's announcement of Trade tariffs for imports from China and licesing and ban on import of defence equipments, high end TVs etc. The heated debate of back to the moribund policy of import restrictions in the name of Make in India- Atmanirbhar Bharat is indeed a good one.
Does this mean back to the future?
But there can be an argument in terms of supporting this policy of import restrictions.
When fledgling industry is sought to be setup like in high end tech products, these specific products may require some sort of support or sops for a initial few years. When foreign direct investment is invited for huge sunrise industries, such import walls will be helpful but all but temporarily. If there is a sunset clause introduced for all these tariff or sops or subsidies, it should be welcome. Govt. should make it a point to insert a sunset clause for all these import walls except in very few strategic sectors which may not exceed five on the whole.Govt should not give an impression that it is interested in augmenting its tax revenue through these high import duties.
India has given a great fillip to Make in India- Atmanirbhar in some of the industries like Auto, Smartphones etc which has generated huge employment opportunities in the country. Inorder to give a temporary boost to this policy, Govt has done the right thing by introducing few Tariff walls in order to promote the above stated policy and these Tariff barriers should neither be seen as a way of revenue rising, nor as a permanent fixture to protect the domestic industry.
Cricket has weathered many a winter and smothered many a vagary as a gentleman's game. Cricket was played during Spanish flu times also and UK's Wisden has not recorded any disruption in the progress of the cricket season in 1918 and 1919. But Cricket was severely restricted during World war 1 when all the major cricket playing nations were involved in the war.Cricket was also played less during World War II since England was involved in the war in full measure. But during all these periods of distress, Cricket was played in India with the least disruptions.
In fact, Wisden which has recorded death of English cricketers during World War 1 and 2 in all cricket playing nations , has not even mentioned one indian cricketer dying during Spanish flu days.This has to be seen in the light of total death toll of 17 million who died in india during Spanish flu years.
So even in 1918 and during World wars everybody around the world believed that India could somehow manage and survive humanitarian crises.
But this Covid 19 apart from being a dangerous pandemic , has also become a statistician's delight. of course not as enjoyable as cricket statistics. But still there is a everyday scorecard and the top states are vying with each other to remain on top with highest Covid 19 nos. Tracking, Tracing , Testing and Treating has given huge opportunities for multifold statistics and different tools to be employed across the country and the globe.
there are 3 day moving average, 5 day average, 7 day moving averages of tested, positive, discharged, active, deaths etc.etc. and colorful graphs of percentage growths of each one of them which compete with each other for eyeball grabs.
All the news channels have a separate ticker like in a Cricket match and hour to hour scores update pushes up your BP and make you a Covid patient , if not one already. Many people have stopped seeing news reporting in any channel and if they see one by mistake wait with bated breath,holding their chests with clenched fists as if hearing an India scorecard in a World cup cricket match.
Of course, the statisticians, epidemiologists, virologists give dire prediction every 15 days constantly reminding us that Covid nos. will surge and there will be a deluge in the next two months and this has been going on for the last 4 months.They have been predicting wildly exaggerated nos. and some statisticians can track all these predicted nos. of various agencies and give out the comparisons with the actuals. Such comparisons can provide another play with graphs, colours etc.
In all this round-robin play what is missing is character.Only few have been able to hold their forte not to rock the boat and rattle the gullible.Like lenders and banks looking for people with character to lend ,this pandemic has given a clarion call to those with character to come to the rescue. You can find people with capital, capacity to repay but finding a person with Character ,which is willingness to repay, is difficult. Character being a rare commodity in these days of rising NPAs, Bankers will nod their heads in agreement with me. In Cricket also we have seen people like Rahul Dravid, the Wall, VVS Lakshman, who have displayed great character to steady the ship, in crisis situations. Cricket captains like Mike Brearley of England, Pataudi and Dhoni of india, have shown stoic demeanour in the face of dire situations while leading their Teams. But a World cup winning cricket captain Imran Khan is the PM of Pakistan during this pandemic.But like in his heydays he is spitting venom at his rivals even outside the cricket arena. Is Cricket not making PM ,a gentleman?
However, I am not losing hope since our PM, himself, is a man who displays great Character even if he has not played cricket and is known to have sold & served Tea perhaps even during Tea breaks while others were busy playing Test Cricket!!
Be cautious and there is no need to spread fear and panic about both Covid and Economy! Drink hot Tea and take good rest!
RBI's recent Monetary Policy announcement after MPC considered the latest economic factors, CPI etc , came out with no repo rate cut. Primarily because CPI is elevated and at an uncomfortable level as far as RBI is concerned.since the mandated and stated objective of RBI is now inflation control, RBI has decided to hold the rate this time despite the economic slowdown calling for a steep rate cut.RBI also mentioned that this year would see real GDP contraction after more than four decades, but still decided to save the powder for a more rainy day or for a day when the bang will be worth its buck.
India is facing rising prices also esp. food prices, fuel prices and therefore is experiencing a cost push inflation. There is a school of economists who say the inflation is fueled by easy liquidity floating in the economy and the stock exchange boom , gold price rise all indicate to easy money into areas where some quick money can be made.Even RBI is predicting a rise in inflation levels in Q2 but has refrained from an inflation forecast.
Gold price,as Ruchir Sharma in today's TOI blog(link )puts it, rises due to uptick in demand whenever interest rate is lower than the inflation rate. But Gold being a safe haven investment booms when the rest of the economy sees more volatility elsewhere esp. in stable investments. There is a rush of outflow from equity MFs in July but is it going to Debt MFs or to stock market or to gold is anybody's guess.But there is greater desperation driving up buying Gold rather than preference as an investment.
All this paint a confusing story but with tinges of liquidity bulge which may become an inflation down the road, unless the productive resources are used for assets and jobs creation. But the silverlinings are shallow oil prices, decent monsoon, burgeoning foreign exchange reserves and surplus in current account balance. So, cost push factors in inflation are slightly mitigated in the near to short term.
CII 's recent 111th Business Outlook survey,July 2020, which was released last month revealed that out of three indeces Current situation index, Expectation index, Business confidence index, the Current Situation Index of Q1 of Fy 20-21 is similar to the levels of Q4 of Fy 19-20! Only the Expectations and Business Confidence levels in the economy have deteriorated during Q1 of Fy 20-21 as compared to earlier quarter.
Dr.Manmohan Singh in his BBC interview has also clearly said that this human crisis created by the pandemic calls for greater spending and greater borrowings by the GOI, even upto another 10% of GDP for tackling health, military and economic challenges of the country. His wise words would be worthy of listening now.(link)
But this borrowing must have a clear exit clause linking it to FRBM Act requirement of glided fiscal deficit path to 3% of GDP eventually in the short to medium term of 3/4 years. Only this can bring back investors into the country. Otherwise Fiscal profligacy is the scourge of the growing economies like India.
There are no simple answers but quick actions,as outlined by PM in his speech on the occasion of Ram janmasthan Temple laying foundation,have to be taken by the Govt. Quoting from Kamba Ramayana he said "காலம் தாழ ஈண்டு இனும் இருத்தி போலாம்" என்றான் இராமன்" which essentially means we should not procrastinate taking actions to rectify the situation. A well focused fiscal stimulus, vaccine or no vaccine, is an urgent imperative.
Minimalism is an old concept but is gaining ground these days when Covid 19 pandemic is trying to devour the entire world.
Minimalism is all about living with less. This is not a fad but a way of life of renunciation and deep withdrawal from worldly pleasures, which has a profound effect on the psychology of humans.
In India, many of our Saints and philosophers have talked about leading life of penance ,sacrifice and total detachment. Even wealthy persons of yester years led a life like that of a Trustees of their wealth. Gandhiji also said this in his seven sins of life:
"Wealth without work; Pleasure without Conscience;Science without humanity;Knowledge without character; Politics without principle; Commerce without Morality; Worship without sacrifice"
It is said that Gandhiji also laid lot of stress on wealthy businessmen and persons to remember that they are Trustees not owners of their wealth which provide them an opportunity to serve the people at large and for social welfare.
Minimalist philosophy emphasizes on getting rid of excess stuff and living life with less and less of worldly possessions.
This is similar to the concept of leading a life like that of water on Lotus leaf. It is a status of living attached but detached explained in Bhagavad Gita. Nishkamya karma yoga in Gita is a path on the same lines without any attachment to the results. If you stretch it , this will show that the emphasis is on being not selfish but living for the sake of greater good of the society.
In Tamilnadu, siddhars gave a concept of "இருந்தும் இல்லாமல் இரு" which is nothing but minimalism of modern era. Siddhars extended this concept even to knowing the meaning of our existence. According to them God Dhakshinamurthy symbolises total silence and inward withdrawal of soul to know thyself. Arunagirinathar was delighted at being advised by the Lord "to remain in silence".Even getting rid of words or speech is the best way to realise the truth about oneself.
"All animal are equal, but some animals are more equal than others," wrote George Orwell in his allegorical novel Animal Farm. the stody in short conveys the meaning that the absolute power corrupts absolutely.
His novel 1984 which is a classic dystopian novel, also wrote about Thought Police to persecute individuality and independent thinking . This novel and Aldous Huxley's "Brave New World" rank as two of the best dystopian novels of twentieth century. Huxley's novel describes a world where people are born and raised through engineered artificial wombs and childhood indoctrination into predetermined classes or castes based on intelligence and labour.
In all these novels, a world covered by intelligence which gives it an order and discipline predetermined by its rulers, is a dire prediction.
Coming to Covid 19 driven world of today, our ways and methods are directed by rulers assisted by doctors, epidemiologists and virologists , and we are not at liberty to do and act on our own. The overarching societal welfare notion constrains individual liberty and movements. Since it is viewed as a temporary measure many have been living with it.
But once Vaccine is made available, this may give way to more individual liberties and rights.
However there is a lingering question: "who will get Vaccine first".
Pl. read the opening sentence now again. Some people are considered more equal than others and they are the powers that be and those close to them.
But this notion is against the principles of natural justice and would not hold waters in a democratic society in a free world. The Vaccine adminstration should have a free protocol without any strings of power, money, position pulling it. This is very very important for the society or any country to think they are still democratic and free.Only then future is secure and people can look forward to prosperity guided by a truly compassionate Govts.
