Blogging about Society, individual and collective behaviour/herd mentality, nudges,economics,business,politics,sports and spirituality and on all the other subjects about which I know very little !!
Initially, when COVID 19 started spreading in India, PM Modi announced a war on Covid 19 and every single citizen abided by his exhortation.
Many newspapers and media personnel screamed Modi is going hammer and tongs at Covid 19 virus in order to scorch it totally.
But after a few lockdowns, both PM and the common man understood with humility that Covid demands hammer and dance strategy to deal with it.
So we are now reconciled to the fact that we must learn to live with Covid 19 at peace instead of waging a losing war. Adapting to its speed and spread, the common man is now equipped with mask, social distancing etc. to tackle it and dance with it.
Govt adopts the hammer and the common man adopts dancing with it.
Hopefully, this will become a considered foreign policy also with China, the birthplace of Covid19. Hammer at LAC and then dance with it in commercial and trade space!!Also, dance with China to wean it off Pakistan!!
Policy prescriptions are flying thick and fast and on my part, I am adding one more .
All Economists including me are prescribing deficit monetisation, pump priming etc. taking a leaf out of Modern Monetary Theory.
As against this,Central Govt. has an alternative which is called Asset monetisation, according to me.Govt calls it Disinvestment/Divestment of PSUs. When the whole world is reeling under Covid pandemic , will there be a suitor for Air India?
Even if there is a good buyer will he be willing to pay the right price for Air India.What will be the benchmark for its valuation when the whole industry is bogged down by this pandemic and its repercussions on the travel industry.
In such unprecedented situations , it is best advised not to go in for outright sale transactions of Government stake in PSUs including Air India, BPCL,etc.
Similarly, other intangible but real assets are Spectrum waves (link), Mining/Abiotic ,Biotic Resources which are hidden inside the Earth, Ocean ,Space etc., Potential Renewable energy sources, which have future economic value and can add to GDP when suitably exploited without degrading the environment.
If these resources are valued properly, and India identifies these assets in terms of monetising its strengths, then India will have to look for its Enterprise value and raise suitable resources upfront for its current requirements in investing in its infra development.
In fact even lands owned by Indian Airports Authority can be used better by allowing usage of its land underground for commercial purposes.Even some of the defence lands can be wisely used under the ground for commecial purposes without in any way jeopardising defence security.
Sri. Krishnamurthy Subramanian, Chief Economic Advisor to Central Govt,yesterday, has gone on record saying that further demand stimulus measures will be announced after vaccine becomes available. Why should we link stimulus to vaccine availability is not clear. What kind of vaccine he is expecting and if the vaccine falls short of his expectations whether he would not allow roll out of stimulus?
It may become too late to wait till then.Why because, the common man has started saving his meagre earnings due to his fear about his future earnings and not due to Covid pandemic per se.In order to allay his fear about his employment and future earnings, Govt must sacrifice some near term revenue and announce some economic incentives for kick starting the economy.What better place to start than with Indirect Tax cuts. Auto sector is the biggest in manufacturing in terms of GDP and reducing GST on it from 28% and converge it with Revenue Neutral Rate(RNR) of 18% will give a huge boost to demand, and thereby to the generation of employment.The multiplier effect will be huge on the rest of the economy with ripple effects cascading throughout the economy.Difficult times demand drastic steps in terms of revenue sacrifice by Govt in the near term.The Govt.will get back more than half its sacrificed revenue by way of huge jump in volumes of goods and services produced.The feel good factor this can generate will negative the fear over the pandemic and will give a greater fillip to PM's call for "Atma nirbhar Bharat" and "Make in India" initiatives.So, one should not wait for Vaccines to announce this.We must do it on war footing. We have anecdotal examples at hand. Like Mr.Mukesh Ambani bringing in huge FDI even during Covid without waiting for it to end, the Govt. must take a cue from his proactive action and give this relief to the economy.Thiruvalluvar also says "தூங்குக தூங்கிச் செயற்பால் தூங்கற்க தூங்காது செய்யும் வினை."(Sleep over such actions as may be slept over, but not over such actions which require quick actions) This calls for immediate action on the ground to kickstart demand and to restore the confidence of common man in his future earnings, income, and employment.
If you do a SWOT analysis of India's capabilities, certainly Software prowess will be among the top in the list in terms of technological leverage. Pharma will come next to it and there are others like leather goods, cotton textiles, garments etc.
There is one niche area where India has excelled in all- Research, Design and Manufacturing capabilities and that is two-wheeler production. Even though India borrowed the technology from Japanese manufacturers initially, now India has its own name in the world for 2 wheeler manufacturing competing and even outshining the best in the world.
Yesterday I was listening to a panel discussion on defence manufacturing. Two out of the four panelists predicted in about 5 to 10 years time, India will be among the first three in terms of Research, Design and Mfg. of niche defense equipment incl high-end weapons built on the cutting end technology. According to them ,it has been made possible by the coherent, calibrated and painstaking efforts of this Govt. starting from Manohar Parrikar as the Defence Minister.
One of the panelists being Air Vice Marshal(retd) knew what he is talking about in terms of Govt. policies and the dilly-dallying attitudes of bureaucrats in carrying the agenda of the Govt. forward. He said that the dance involving the Govt, bureaucrats, and the armed forces have got into synchronized steps with well thought out targets after listening to the Defence Mfg.Industry.
Apart from these industries, India is also looking at developing capabilities in semiconductors, smartphones, chemicals and high-end pharma, renewable energy power equipment production, Mobility solutions etc. India stands to gain by investing in cutting edge technologies in Nano, AI, Robotics, Space, IoT, ML, DL, etc. For these things, India's investment in Targeted Research and Development will have to be substantially scaled up as a percentage of GDP.
Alvin Toffler in his "Powershift" mentioned about Knowledge, Wealth and Power/Violence as the three dimensions (கல்வியா,செல்வமா,வீரமா?) of the society with Knowledge being mentioned as the most democratic of all levers.India has to use that lever to its advantage.
Then, India can leapfrog into Industrial Revolution 4, since India was forced to miss the first three Industrial Revolutions by design!
Whenever any discussion happens on the human mental states, usually the discussion starts with Sigmund Freud. His Id, Ego and Alterego interpretations of the human mind in both conscious and subconscious levels have been the subject matter of debate throughout the world.
If you construct a matrix grid with Child, Parent and Adult ego states of Eric Berne's Transactional Analysis of social behaviours exhibited by human beings, blended with Freud's human personality types of psycho analysis , then the two-axis grid will present what Eric Berne envisaged.
However, I went one step further and tried to blend the basic gunas as outlined by the Indian philosophy of yonder: Sattva, Rajas and Tamas. The complex matrix will be like the above.
According to me the middle axis of a combination of Ego, Parent and Rajas will give a stability to the human life and existence through the ages. It is Sattva which will primarily drive the Adult behaviour and bear on the Alterego for the soul's evolution to a higher plane of existence. Only a very few would be able to reach that level of discipline and yearning it demands.
Some of you may wonder why I titled this piece "we are born without locks!".
One young man met a yogi and asked him, if God had willed that everybody should be disciplined and strict then he could have given us locks for our senses and so since He has not sent us with locks, He wants us to remain free and enjoy the life as per our wishes. Yogi with a smile replied saying that He has set us free with a free Will trusting us against misuse and abuse.! that is the beauty of the whole game.
We create our own game and our own rules, and we are allowed to play with all our senses in our command. We are free to choose our methods, ways of creating excitement, enjoyment and merrimaking to our hearts' contentment. But your methods and ways pave way for your own future to unfold for you. Your means justify the ends. If You tread on others' toes to play this game, you may invite somebody to tread on your toes as a reaction and the game continues that way.You let others play and enjoy the game with you, somebody will also allow you to play and enjoy. So, this way the game goes on and on and on.
It is all about how you try to improve your fair play in the game. When your Sattivic nature gains upper hand , you are out of the line of Ego taking over and you are constantly trying to up your fairplay. Yogis play it the minimalist way.
It is all without locks and keys!!All in the game!
