Bacteriophages, Ganges and MIT on fasting.

In 1896, Ernest Hanbury Hankin, a British Bacteriologist, Chemist, came out with a finding that the Indian rivers, Ganges and Jamuna could actually restrict the outbreak of cholera and in fact the waters could destroy the Cholera bacteria. He was the first to detect the bacteriophage activity and its presence in the river waters of Ganges and Jamuna. A startling discovery when the whole world was saying the river waters of Ganges were the most polluted.link. In his own words
"It is seen that the unboiled water of the Ganges kills the cholera germ in less than 3 hours. The same water, when boiled, does not have the same effect. On the other hand, well water is a good medium for this microbe, whether boiled or filtered."

This was mentioned even by Mark Twain in his More Tramps Abroad.

Recently microbiology researchers from Chandigarh's Institute of Microbial Technology (IMTECH), studied the healing properties of Ganges water at its upper reaches and found bacteriophage activity which destroys the disease causing bacteria. The bacteriophage is a type of virus that eats up bacteria.link.

Recently MIT came up with a study on fasting by humans and its beneficial impact on human health.link "Fasting boosts stem cell regenerative capacity"- the MIT article says,

"As people age, their intestinal stem cells begin to lose their ability to regenerate. These stem cells are the source for all new intestinal cells, so this decline can make it more difficult to recover from gastrointestinal infections or other conditions that affect the intestine.

This age-related loss of stem cell function can be reversed by a 24-hour fast, according to a new study from MIT biologists. The researchers found that fasting dramatically improves stem cells’ ability to regenerate, in both aged and young mice."

Indians practice this 24-hour fasting once in 15 days on the Ekadasi day from time immemorial.

The human body is an intelligent machine with recuperative and regenerative capacity and given the right metabolic switch , it can mend itself when disease strikes.

All the Siddhars of India emphasized that "உணவே மருந்து"(Food is medicine) when taken in the right quantity at the right time intervals. Thiruvalluvar has also emphasized this in his kural chapter "மருந்து". 

India is a land possessing all the keys to the world's problems, if only you explored.

Health welfare policies to dovetail into Economic Policy making and emerging New Normal

When coming out of a pandemic will the world view change?

I recently read that Ms.Angela Merkel, Chancellor of Germany, has inducted more Virologists, Epidemiologists and Sociologists etc. into her team for the purpose of decision making in these challenging times of the pandemic.Of course there are Economists also in the policy making.

Leaders around the world either leading a country or leading a corporation have started listening to the Health Experts for formulating new Age policies across the continents. The Health policy to dovetail into Economic Policy of the country. So far countries have been juggling only with Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy but now the "New Normal" has emerged, where economic policy making is incumbent upon Health Policy direction, speed and spread.

The following graph will illustrate how Economic well being and growth of a country is going to hinge on its Health Policy and Infra in the coming years.

As Risk Management Experts view this pandemic  " Black Swan" event  Low probability but High impact event ; some calling it Grey Rhino event (high impact but known unknown)as the world neglected the repeated warnings of the pandemic outbreak for sometime now. May be only the timing and impact was not known.

But to come out of it we need to build bottom up with both robust Health Policy vectors intertwined with Economic policies that provide nudges for better health outcomes on a long term basis.

We need to appreciate that there may be many  windows through which the diverse view points will emerge and for formulating future policies either at Governmental level or at a Corporate House level , all these windows need to be opened and studied/listened to ,for a Sustainable Governance architecture.

Amid the pandemic, demands for social equality emerging out of George Floyd's death ,turning into demands for economic equality in a society of Haves and Havenots are deafening.

Welcome to the world of New Normal!!

Land is not manufactured anymore! Can we turn this on its head.

"Buy land, they're not making it anymore"-Mark Twain

Govt. is in the process of identifying land parcels for attracting industries moving out of China for want of safe haven. If big land parcels can be earmarked for setting up Industrial parks and industrial clusters, it will give a huge fillip for Make in India campaign.

As PM said India has the Intent, it paves way for Inclusion,  provides Infrastructure. attracts Investment and enables  Innovation. But what is stopping it from leap frogging. It is redtapism in land acquisition ,lackadaisical Court procedures and the greed of politicians that put paid to ambitions of growth in Make in India. Even smaller countries like Vietnam, Indonesia are able to attract industries moving out of China in a big way but the sleeping giant like India falters.

Despite improving the ranking in Ease of Doing Business has the economy really energised itself to become an aspiring industrial giant. There are green shoots here and there , but one swallow does not make a summer. We know of several projects that are languishing due to land acquisition hurdles like Chennai MRTS last leg of just 500 meters upto St Thomas Mount for more than a decade. Who pays for the time, cost over runs. Nothing is free in economics and only the poor taxpayer foots the additional bill and he gets empty rhetoric but gets no infra facility for decades.

Some out of the box solutions for land parcels will have to be found out. We know that land is not manufactured anymore.Is it really? Can we not flatten some of the mounds, hillocks around our cities and build industrial parks.

For example near Chennai airport there are few hillocks and if they are removed or flattened reasonably, many industries can be located. If these rocks removed from such hillocks are deposited near our Coastline can we build small islands to locate some industries over there?

Can we start manufacturing lands as part of Make in India initiative?

Change management, Covid and nation.

Kubler-Ross Change Curve

This Curve theory explains the process as to how people cope up with significant upheaval or life-changing or threatening situations.link

The process explains that people undergo five/six stages: the first stage is that of Shock, then going into Denial, then to Anger, moving into Depression. Up to this stage the performance of the individual or group of people will continue to deteriorate as time progresses. Once the inevitability of the Change dawns, then the people move to Acceptance and finally into Integration when the performance will again start regaining the original position or sometimes exceeding it if there are supporting enablers or incentives.

This is true for individuals as well as for a country or economy.

Since the nation received the pandemic shock in March middle, you may recount we have seen at least the first four stages. We start denying that this pandemic will affect us and once we realised that it is spreading we showed our Anger at China, TJ, and at all those epicentres. Now we are in the Depression stage slowly moving into Acceptance stage where we need to understand to live with this virus by being vigilant and exercising caution. We should not let our safety guard down .

One must also understand that when you are already in Depression stage, if there is another negative news the performance will again start sagging and another cycle /bout of Shock, Denial ,Anger and Depression will kick in .So, it is extremely important for the Govts and the people to navigate this phase without further unexpected shocks.

People are cautioned to listen to the TV news with a pinch of salt. They must look at the Covid nos as a percentage of tests made, active cases situation , infection per lac of population and death per lac. 

RBI consumer confidence survey of May 2020 and getting the common man's dreams back.

RBI consumer confidence survey was done in May 2020, which came out a few days back paints a dark picture of consumer confidence. It has hit rock bottom so far.link. Whether it will hit another bottom is a moot point.

According to RBI Consumer confidence collapsed in May with the Current Situation Index (CSI) touching a historic low of 63.7 dipping from 85.6 in March 20. One year ahead Future Expectations Index entered the zone of pessimism at 97.9 for the first time after Modi govt. took charge, falling from 115.2 just two months ago.

These are all negative news, but as expected. However these are lag news and therefore markets looking for lead indicators ignored this. We all now know that Covid 19 has wreaked havoc on our economic health more than what it could do to people health.

But there are several silver linings like not many people do not expect price levels to go up. If we discount the "recency bias" in their opinions and perceptions,I still find 14.4 % people saying in May 2020 that the economy has improved. We must also keep the date of survey and context in our minds. The survey date is between  May 5-17 and in the midst of Covid fear, with lakhs of migrant workers walking and shown endlessly 24x7 in TV news. Sometimes I wondered how come with so many trains and buses being stopped which were all running overcrowded, people are managing commuting and travelling. Our media has put a little spin and exaggeration to this by labelling every traveller on foot a migrant labourer leaving for his native place. Every reporter worth his salt with a mike on hand interviewed every single person on foot asking whether he was migrant labour and everyone being asked acknowledging it. Now I understand that all those trains and buses running daily are only for migrant labourers!! That is beside the point.

Coming back to my point that almost 14.4% of people still finding that the economy has improved is a testimony to the confidence of the people on the Govt. Govt has rightly acted with alacrity by announcing Rs.21 lac crore bundled package which will make  supply-side fire on all cylinders. All of us agree that it is the supply side which needs time to pick and put all its pieces together. But the confidence and speed with which Supply-side can get back on its feet, essentially depends on its perception of demand perking up. The demographic dividend is a major contributor to the demand but Future Expectations Index indicator is a proxy for this perception by the Supply-side. When FEI is weak, it is time for the Govt. to understand that income levels are falling and people are losing faith in the strength of the economy. This pessimism will damage the Supply-side booster shots going waste unless the perception is reversed quickly. Opening up of the economy after lockdown will itself augur optimism but sustaining it depends on Demand-side actions by the Govt. To kickstart a flagging economy, the man on the street who is the ultimate consumer must get his job back, his income back and basically his dreams about the future back.

Govt must work for getting his dreams back without losing time. Cut  Auto sector GST, for a start.

India, Columbus and its rich multi-cultural ethos.

Oranisation for Islamic Cooperation has 53 member countries and out of which seven nations have the suffix "stan" in their names.

If your look at the etymology of the word "stan" , you will find that this derived from Sanskrit and its origin clearly show towards the direction of India. Many scholars call it Proto-Iranian-Indian origin but those who have studied Sanskrit know that the word Sthan is extensively used in our literature to denote a land.Even the temple in India is called Devasthan and India is full of such Devasthans.

What I am driving at is that the Muslim World predominantly uses this Sthan or its shortened Stan to denote its countries including Pakistan, Kazakhastan , Turkmenistan etc. Apart from this both Pakistan and Bangladesh owe its existence due to the benevolence and brotherhood of India.

India is replete with example of religious harmony and Sabarimala in South india offers ample testimony to the syncretic Indian culture which behoves the pilgrims to visit  Wavar Dargah in Erumeli before darshan of Swami Aiyappa at Sabarimala.This is the ritual a hindu devotee is compelled to follow and this has been happening for the past many centuries.

India/hinduism is rightly called Mother of all Religions by Swami Vivekananda and the world acknowledges it. The World as One Family is the Indian concept from Vedas- "Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam" and carried over the ages.

Only when Muslims who have lived, eaten and thrived in India all of a sudden shout India Murdabad, throw bombs and bullets to kill innocent women and children and say will not respect Bharat Mata, there is a reaction from the majority Hindus. When Muslims respect the sentiments of the majority Hindus and want to live in peace, Hindus will heartily reciprocate. India is a multi cultural, multi ethnic mosaic society and has lived that way for many millenia now and will continue to be like that because of its deep rooted Hindu culture and ethos. Columbuses will always find ways to reach India.

Rs.20 lac cr.Covid camouflage and pending GST reduction

Who says nothing is free in economics.

All of us want everything free and Modi Govt should find a solution to all our problems today and today itself. All this in the name of pandemic.

This Rs.20 lac cr is the most maligned number like "Rs.15 lac in bank account of everyone."

People have been counting zeroes or sibals in this huge number .People started hearing about 1 lac crore during UPA times when Govt auditor bandied 1.76 lac cr.for the first time in his scathing 2G audit report.

So now Rs.1 lac cr. has fallen out of fashion and so 10 lac cr. is better keeping pace with the inflation of our times. Like director Shankar's mega block buster big budget bash, Modi has to announce this humongous figure to take the wind out of opposition's sails.

this package has pulled many punches and seems to contain well thought out stimulus prescriptions. Some short term like money to Jan dhan accounts and many medium to long term .As we all are used to crisis for bringing out the best economic reforms, financial, agricultural, power reforms have all been bundled together using Covid camouflage.

GST reform/reduction is still pending.GST reduction of Auto sector from 28% to 18% will be a good starting point.This will push up demand,sentiment and also generate employment in one stroke.Covid struck people are looking for personal transport vehicles and this is the best time for this GST reduction. Revenues foregone notionally in short term will get recovered in medium term with its beneficial effects spilling all over the economy. In any case States should not worry as they will get any revenue loss compensated by Central Govt for 5 years.

This will be a great fillip with huge multiplier effects, ripple effects on the economy since Auto sector is the biggest driver of the GDP of the entire economy.