Land is not manufactured anymore! Can we turn this on its head.

"Buy land, they're not making it anymore"-Mark Twain

Govt. is in the process of identifying land parcels for attracting industries moving out of China for want of safe haven. If big land parcels can be earmarked for setting up Industrial parks and industrial clusters, it will give a huge fillip for Make in India campaign.

As PM said India has the Intent, it paves way for Inclusion,  provides Infrastructure. attracts Investment and enables  Innovation. But what is stopping it from leap frogging. It is redtapism in land acquisition ,lackadaisical Court procedures and the greed of politicians that put paid to ambitions of growth in Make in India. Even smaller countries like Vietnam, Indonesia are able to attract industries moving out of China in a big way but the sleeping giant like India falters.

Despite improving the ranking in Ease of Doing Business has the economy really energised itself to become an aspiring industrial giant. There are green shoots here and there , but one swallow does not make a summer. We know of several projects that are languishing due to land acquisition hurdles like Chennai MRTS last leg of just 500 meters upto St Thomas Mount for more than a decade. Who pays for the time, cost over runs. Nothing is free in economics and only the poor taxpayer foots the additional bill and he gets empty rhetoric but gets no infra facility for decades.

Some out of the box solutions for land parcels will have to be found out. We know that land is not manufactured anymore.Is it really? Can we not flatten some of the mounds, hillocks around our cities and build industrial parks.

For example near Chennai airport there are few hillocks and if they are removed or flattened reasonably, many industries can be located. If these rocks removed from such hillocks are deposited near our Coastline can we build small islands to locate some industries over there?

Can we start manufacturing lands as part of Make in India initiative?

Change management, Covid and nation.

Kubler-Ross Change Curve

This Curve theory explains the process as to how people cope up with significant upheaval or life-changing or threatening situations.link

The process explains that people undergo five/six stages: the first stage is that of Shock, then going into Denial, then to Anger, moving into Depression. Up to this stage the performance of the individual or group of people will continue to deteriorate as time progresses. Once the inevitability of the Change dawns, then the people move to Acceptance and finally into Integration when the performance will again start regaining the original position or sometimes exceeding it if there are supporting enablers or incentives.

This is true for individuals as well as for a country or economy.

Since the nation received the pandemic shock in March middle, you may recount we have seen at least the first four stages. We start denying that this pandemic will affect us and once we realised that it is spreading we showed our Anger at China, TJ, and at all those epicentres. Now we are in the Depression stage slowly moving into Acceptance stage where we need to understand to live with this virus by being vigilant and exercising caution. We should not let our safety guard down .

One must also understand that when you are already in Depression stage, if there is another negative news the performance will again start sagging and another cycle /bout of Shock, Denial ,Anger and Depression will kick in .So, it is extremely important for the Govts and the people to navigate this phase without further unexpected shocks.

People are cautioned to listen to the TV news with a pinch of salt. They must look at the Covid nos as a percentage of tests made, active cases situation , infection per lac of population and death per lac. 

RBI consumer confidence survey of May 2020 and getting the common man's dreams back.

RBI consumer confidence survey was done in May 2020, which came out a few days back paints a dark picture of consumer confidence. It has hit rock bottom so far.link. Whether it will hit another bottom is a moot point.

According to RBI Consumer confidence collapsed in May with the Current Situation Index (CSI) touching a historic low of 63.7 dipping from 85.6 in March 20. One year ahead Future Expectations Index entered the zone of pessimism at 97.9 for the first time after Modi govt. took charge, falling from 115.2 just two months ago.

These are all negative news, but as expected. However these are lag news and therefore markets looking for lead indicators ignored this. We all now know that Covid 19 has wreaked havoc on our economic health more than what it could do to people health.

But there are several silver linings like not many people do not expect price levels to go up. If we discount the "recency bias" in their opinions and perceptions,I still find 14.4 % people saying in May 2020 that the economy has improved. We must also keep the date of survey and context in our minds. The survey date is between  May 5-17 and in the midst of Covid fear, with lakhs of migrant workers walking and shown endlessly 24x7 in TV news. Sometimes I wondered how come with so many trains and buses being stopped which were all running overcrowded, people are managing commuting and travelling. Our media has put a little spin and exaggeration to this by labelling every traveller on foot a migrant labourer leaving for his native place. Every reporter worth his salt with a mike on hand interviewed every single person on foot asking whether he was migrant labour and everyone being asked acknowledging it. Now I understand that all those trains and buses running daily are only for migrant labourers!! That is beside the point.

Coming back to my point that almost 14.4% of people still finding that the economy has improved is a testimony to the confidence of the people on the Govt. Govt has rightly acted with alacrity by announcing Rs.21 lac crore bundled package which will make  supply-side fire on all cylinders. All of us agree that it is the supply side which needs time to pick and put all its pieces together. But the confidence and speed with which Supply-side can get back on its feet, essentially depends on its perception of demand perking up. The demographic dividend is a major contributor to the demand but Future Expectations Index indicator is a proxy for this perception by the Supply-side. When FEI is weak, it is time for the Govt. to understand that income levels are falling and people are losing faith in the strength of the economy. This pessimism will damage the Supply-side booster shots going waste unless the perception is reversed quickly. Opening up of the economy after lockdown will itself augur optimism but sustaining it depends on Demand-side actions by the Govt. To kickstart a flagging economy, the man on the street who is the ultimate consumer must get his job back, his income back and basically his dreams about the future back.

Govt must work for getting his dreams back without losing time. Cut  Auto sector GST, for a start.

India, Columbus and its rich multi-cultural ethos.

Oranisation for Islamic Cooperation has 53 member countries and out of which seven nations have the suffix "stan" in their names.

If your look at the etymology of the word "stan" , you will find that this derived from Sanskrit and its origin clearly show towards the direction of India. Many scholars call it Proto-Iranian-Indian origin but those who have studied Sanskrit know that the word Sthan is extensively used in our literature to denote a land.Even the temple in India is called Devasthan and India is full of such Devasthans.

What I am driving at is that the Muslim World predominantly uses this Sthan or its shortened Stan to denote its countries including Pakistan, Kazakhastan , Turkmenistan etc. Apart from this both Pakistan and Bangladesh owe its existence due to the benevolence and brotherhood of India.

India is replete with example of religious harmony and Sabarimala in South india offers ample testimony to the syncretic Indian culture which behoves the pilgrims to visit  Wavar Dargah in Erumeli before darshan of Swami Aiyappa at Sabarimala.This is the ritual a hindu devotee is compelled to follow and this has been happening for the past many centuries.

India/hinduism is rightly called Mother of all Religions by Swami Vivekananda and the world acknowledges it. The World as One Family is the Indian concept from Vedas- "Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam" and carried over the ages.

Only when Muslims who have lived, eaten and thrived in India all of a sudden shout India Murdabad, throw bombs and bullets to kill innocent women and children and say will not respect Bharat Mata, there is a reaction from the majority Hindus. When Muslims respect the sentiments of the majority Hindus and want to live in peace, Hindus will heartily reciprocate. India is a multi cultural, multi ethnic mosaic society and has lived that way for many millenia now and will continue to be like that because of its deep rooted Hindu culture and ethos. Columbuses will always find ways to reach India.

Rs.20 lac cr.Covid camouflage and pending GST reduction

Who says nothing is free in economics.

All of us want everything free and Modi Govt should find a solution to all our problems today and today itself. All this in the name of pandemic.

This Rs.20 lac cr is the most maligned number like "Rs.15 lac in bank account of everyone."

People have been counting zeroes or sibals in this huge number .People started hearing about 1 lac crore during UPA times when Govt auditor bandied 1.76 lac cr.for the first time in his scathing 2G audit report.

So now Rs.1 lac cr. has fallen out of fashion and so 10 lac cr. is better keeping pace with the inflation of our times. Like director Shankar's mega block buster big budget bash, Modi has to announce this humongous figure to take the wind out of opposition's sails.

this package has pulled many punches and seems to contain well thought out stimulus prescriptions. Some short term like money to Jan dhan accounts and many medium to long term .As we all are used to crisis for bringing out the best economic reforms, financial, agricultural, power reforms have all been bundled together using Covid camouflage.

GST reform/reduction is still pending.GST reduction of Auto sector from 28% to 18% will be a good starting point.This will push up demand,sentiment and also generate employment in one stroke.Covid struck people are looking for personal transport vehicles and this is the best time for this GST reduction. Revenues foregone notionally in short term will get recovered in medium term with its beneficial effects spilling all over the economy. In any case States should not worry as they will get any revenue loss compensated by Central Govt for 5 years.

This will be a great fillip with huge multiplier effects, ripple effects on the economy since Auto sector is the biggest driver of the GDP of the entire economy.

Eat to live or live to eat- in harmony with principles of hormesis/eustress!!

There is a raging controversy as to why Indians in general advocate vegetarianism as against the world view of eating according to one's preferences.

It is an established fact that we are driven by our chemistry which is made up of enzymes et al derived from what we eat. Then isn't it true what we eat guides us both physically as well as mentally.

Swami Vivekananda on nonvegetarian diet:

"About vegetarian diet I have to say this - first, my Master was a vegetarian; but if he was given meat offered to the Goddess, he used to hold it up to his head. The taking of life is undoubtedly sinful; but so long as vegetable food is not made suitable to the human system through progress in chemistry, there is no other alternative but meat-eating. So long as man shall have to live a Rajasika (active) life under circumstances like the present, there is no other way except through meat-eating. It is true that the Emperor Asoka saved the lives of millions of animals, by the threat of the sword; but is not the slavery of a thousand years more dreadful than that? Taking the life of a few goats as against the inability to protect the honour of one’s own wife and daughter, and to save the morsels for one’s children from robbing hands - which of these is more sinful? Rather let those belonging to the upper ten, who do not earn their livelihood by manual labour, not take meat; but the forcing of vegetarianism upon those who have to earn their bread by labouring day and night is one of the causes of the loss of our national freedom. Japan is an example of what good and nourishing food can do.

(Complete Works, 4.486-7)

All liking for fish and meat disappears when pure Sattva is highly developed, and these are the signs of its manifestation in a soul: sacrifice of everything for others, perfect non-attachment to lust and wealth, want of pride and egotism. The desire for animal food goes when these things are seen in a man. And where such indications are absent, and yet you find men siding with the non­killing party, know it for a certainty that here there is either hypocrisy or a show of religion.

(Complete works, 5.403)"

கலியில் ஜீவபலி உண்டா ? : தெய்வத்தின் குரல் (இரண்டாம் பகுதி)

ஒரு வாதம் உண்டு. அதாவது:

பூர்வ யுகங்களில் மநுஷ்யர்கள் ரொம்பவும் உயர்ந்த சக்தியோடும் பண்புகளோடும் இருந்தார்கள். மனஸிலே பரமப் பிரியத்தை வைத்துக் கொண்டே லோகக்ஷேமார்த்தமாக அவர்களால் ஜீவபலி கொடுக்க முடிந்தது. அதனால் அவர்கள் அசுவம், கோ இவற்றைக்கூட யக்ஞங்களில் பசு பலியாகத் தந்தார்கள். சிராத்தத்தில் மாம்ஸம் சேர்த்தார்கள். இப்படி மனஸில் பட்டுக்கொள்ளாமல், தேவ சக்திகளை லோகநலனுக்காகப் பிரீதி பண்ணும் பொருட்டே அவர்கள் நடுத்தர வயஸில் கிருஹஸ்தர்களாகக் கர்ம மார்க்கத்தில் இருந்து கொண்டு நிஷ்காம்ய கர்மம் செய்தார்களென்றால், பிற்பாடு விருத்தாப்யத்திலோ ஸகல கர்மாவையும் விட்டு விட்டு பூஜை புரஸ்காரங்களும் ஆசாரங்களுங்கூட இல்லாமல், அப்படியே செயலற்ற ஆத்மாராமர்களான ஸந்நியாஸிகளாக இருக்கவும் அவர்களால் முடிந்தது. அவர்களுக்கு எப்பேர்ப்பட்ட உத்தமப் பண்பு இருந்தது என்றால், ஒரு ராஜ்யத்திலே தன் சகோதரனான ராஜா, வாரிசு இல்லாமல் செத்துப் போய்விட்டால், ‘அராஜகம் வராமல் தேசம் க்ஷேமமாக இருக்கவேண்டுமே’ என்ற ஒரே எண்ணத்துக்காக, தங்களுக்கென்று காமமே இல்லாமல் தங்களுடைய பிரம்மசரியம் குலையாமலே, ஸஹோதரனின் ஸ்தானத்தில் தாங்களே இருந்துகொண்டு புத்ரோத்பத்தி பண்ணக்கூட முடிந்தது. நம்முடைய கலியுகத்தில் இப்படிப்பட்ட நிஷ்காம்ய கர்ம பாவனையோ, பிரேமையோடேயே கொலைகூடச் செய்கிற பாவனையோ, ஸகல கர்மாவையும்விட்டு மனஸையும் அடக்கி ஸந்நியாஸியாக இருக்கிற தகுதியோ, ஸ்திரீ ஸங்கத்திலும் பிரம்மசர்ய பாவனை நழுவாத தன்மையோ எவருக்கும் இருக்க முடியாது. அதனால் அச்வமேதம், கோமேதம், சிராத்தத்தில் மாம்ஸம், ஸந்நியாஸம், ஸஹோதரன் ஸ்தானத்தில் புத்ரோத்பத்தி செய்வது ஆகிய இந்த ஐந்தும் கலியில் வர்ஜமாகும் (விலக்கத் தக்கதாகும்) என்பது ஒரு வாதம்:

அச்வாலம்பம் கவாலம்பம் ஸந்-ந்யாஸம் பல பைத்ருகம் |
தேவரேண ஸுதோத்பத்திம் கலௌ பஞ்ச விவர்ஜயேத் || 1

I am not a scholar to question the wisdom of Swami Vivekananda nor am I learned to doubt the words of Maha 

Periyava.

For those who practise and pursue Sattva , they have clearly told what is prescribed and models of modern 

scientists like Yerkes-Dodson curve based on principles of hormesis/eustress accept even Dietary Restrictions 

including fasting as methods to cope with emotional and behavioural challenges. 

"Unprecedented" budget deficits ,all in the glory of COVID 19!

Governments looking for an exit , looking for an excuse to wriggle out, looking for an alibi have all got a valid reason-COVID 19.

In the name of COVID 19 nations are filing compensatory suits against sovereign countries. Govt agencies and big corporates around the world are invoking force majeure clauses for reneging on the contracts. Suddenly the corporate legal etiquettes are no more sacrosanct. The times are unprecedented and the usage of the word 'Unprecedented" has been unprecedented ,as commented by one journalist.

Govts. are exceeding their budgetary deficit limits, want to try "the nuclear options" of fully monetising the deficits,drop helicopter money, encourage everybody to borrow and spend,pushing the lenders to go on a lending spree and loan deferrals and waivers left, right and  centre. In short spend your way through the disease and misery. But none of them are clear as to who is going to foot this spendthrifts' bill. We, in three years time, will be saddled with the repayments and interest on it with inflation tax .We should be prepared for this or should prepare our children for this if we do not survive this pandemic.Nothing is free in economics.

But all this leads us to the fundamental question is the Govt trying to white wash its inability in raising tax GDP ratio , rein in fiscal deficit and push for the GDP growth, all in the name of Covid 19.

Probably the Govt is reluctant to draw a separate COVID 19 budget for this reason.Possibly it wants to purge the fudged Govt deficits and wash of all its past accumulated sins due to window dressing of budgetary deficits, all in one go under the guise of Covid 19.

Covid 19 may well turn out to be Budget saviour after all the mayhem.