Altman Z score and RBI Kamath committee ratios.

 Edward Altman published the Z score formula for predicting bankruptcy way back in 1968. He said this formula can be judiciously used to find whether any company may go into bankruptcy within the next two years. It is a quick find formula to gauge the financial health for publicly held companies by using the P&L values and Balance sheet values through a mix of business ratios.

In simple terms Z =1.2X1+1.4X2+3.3X3+0.6X4+1.0X5, where

X1= Working capital/Total assets.i.e the ratio of liquid assets in relation to the total assets or size of the Co.

X2=Retained earnings/Total assets i.e the ratio of retained profit in relation to the total assets of the Co.

X3=EBIT/Total Assets i.e the ratio of efficiency of the operations without the impact of leveraging, in relation to the assets deployed in the Co.also signifying the importance of operating earnings for the long term financial health of the Co.

X4=market capitalisation/book value of total liabilities i.e the ratio of market price in relation to the total liabilities incl. borrowings are  considered as a reflection financial health;

X5= Total sales/ Total assets i.e the ratio of assets turnover indicating how well the assets are utilised to generate the sales.

There are some variations for privately held companies and for service cos.

What is the necessity for delving into this formula of bankruptcy now? RBI appointed KV Kamath Committee has come out with similar ratios for the use of banks in identifying distress among the Indian business companies with various ratio values depending on the kind of business the cos concerned are in.

The Committee came out with the following ratios, that were selected based on their relevance for Resolution Plan for the distressed cos. when their loans are put to restructuring by the banks. 

1)Total outside liabilities(TOL)/Adjusted Tangible Networth(ATNW)i.e Adjusted Net of investments;

2)Total Debt/EBIDTA ;

3)Current Ratio;

4)Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR);i.e the ratio of the addition of the net cash accruals with interest and finance charges divided by the addition of the current portion of the long-term debt with interest and finance charges.

5) Average Debt Service Coverage Ratio (ADSCR) i.e average over the loan period.

All these ratios are highly relevant with a well-defined threshold for various industries of the domestic economy including that of services, for those looking at the financial health of the Companies. Many Credit Rating Agencies also use many of these ratios. Perhaps, the Altman Z score may also be included for evaluating the preponderance to bankruptcy among the Co.s  under the distressed category seeking their bank loans to be restructured.

Indian politicians -their precept and practice

 It is said "there is a world of difference between precept and practice"- more so with our politicians and the gap widens when they speak about it more.!!

It is generally thought that Political lies are always for exploiting the ignorance of the public. Mostly they are manipulative for winning the elections. But there are times like Obama lies about Health care inorder to push through some legislation to benefit the larger society(link).

However coming to India, Politicians throw promises at the people mainly to win elections and then they renege on the promises made.

In the recent few weeks there are lot of accusations by the Opposition parties against the Central Govt that Question Hour in the ensuing Parliament has been abolished muzzling the freedom of MPs to ask Govt questions about peoples' problems to elicit answers from the Govt. But there are two stark statistics contradicting the so-called champions of freedom of expression in the Opposition. In the last few years Question hour in the parliament has been wasted for 60% of the time by the unruly Oppositions marring the proceedings of the house. Another interesting point is that in the Opposition ruled West Bengal Question Hour has been suspended by the Govt in view of the prevailing pandemic.!!

So this is clearly double standards adopted by the Opposition and it is raised against the Central Govt only to embarrass it and score some brownie points in the media.

Many of the Opposition ruled State Govts prune the budget of the local bodies saying that the State level finances are severely constrained. But if the Central Govt does it, all of them raise their voices against the Centre saying that the Central-State relationship is severely undermined and the trust of cooperative federalism has been betrayed by the Centre. They have no such qualms when they repress the local bodies by not releasing the funds to them. These are the doublespeak adopted by the opposition parties as a matter of right and pride.Our society does not relish this behaviour of politicians which they do not understand.

Centre and States are like two important organs of the body which is India. Both must work in tandem and in coordinated rhythm. Brain cannot let the Heart down and Heart cannot afford to stop blood supply to Brain. They cannot be at loggerheads with each other. This is the fundamental concept which Politicians must keep in their minds while performing and discharging their Constitutional duties.

Art of tax return filing, nudging and budging!

"Putting fruit at the eye level" is a Nudge. Nudge proposes positive reinforcements  to influence the behaviour and decision making at individual level and at a societal level.

Richard Thaler  and Cass Sunstein in their book Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness have written on Nudges as the key method for influencing the human behaviour which has huge ramifications for the economic and political spheres of every country. Thaler won Nobel Prize for this path-breaking behavioural economics concept. The theory itself was built on the heuristic human behaviour concept of Daniel Kahnemann-Tversky model.Daniel Kahnemann in his book Thinking: Fast and Slow mentions System 1 and System 2 of human thinking process in which System 1 is quick, fast, hunch-based,heuristic and System 2 based on some primitive level analysis to arrive at prefered choice or option. When people have to contend with many choices/constraints or facing time constraint, System 1 will override System 2. leading to a sub-optimal outcome.

WYSIATI(what you see is all there is) is an important underpinning guide in most of the human decisions made and Daniel Kahnemann has extensively dealt with this in his book. Nudges as a persuasive concept as opposed to any directive,coercive action is an adult to adult interactive mode (Transactional analysis?).

Some very interesting Nudges that are used all over the worldlink.  Traffic signal lottery, Piano stairs and cigarette butt voting dust bins will be all inducing good behaviour changing habits.

In the realm of Macro economics inorder to improve tax return filing compliance, some Govts. introduced free health insurance with tax filing compliance.

However the question of ethics of Nudging or is it some sort of psychological manipulation  of human behaviour , remains open for discussion at the global level.

India has always talked about Sama, Dhana, Bheda and Dhanda for influencing human behaviours, always starting with Sama/Dhana. Is the concept of Dhana not the same as "Putting a fruit at the eye level"- a Nudge?!!

Closely connected with it is the Art of Choosing written by Sheena Iyengar in marketing parlance. She found out with jam flavour experimentation that too many choices confuse people in decision making . She demonstrated that people who tasted limited no. of jam flavours are ten times more likely to buy jams than those given more flavours to taste.But she is of the view that neither more choices nor very little are good ,but optimum lies somewhere in between.

Daniel Kahnemann's System 1 will always take over human decision making when confronted with too many choices/options and this has been clearly brought out by Sheena's experiment. The same will hold good for Nudges also. Therefore some of the marketers have started offering a simple default option which will be a win-win for both the seller and the buyer. But  lot of ground work to be done to decide on this default option for the buyer to  perceive it that way!!

As Sheena Iyengar says humans are born to create meaning and also to choose, science can help us to become skillful choosers ,but ultimate decision for zeroing in on a choice is still an art. 

 Tax return filings is still an art?!We wudn't  budge with Nudges?!!