Showing posts with label Air India. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Air India. Show all posts

Lockdowns ,Unlocks and White elephants!

 


We have had four lockdowns and unlocks across the country.To start with it was Complete lockdown, which struck like a bolt from the blue starting from March 24th till May 31st 2020. Many prominent opposition leaders severely criticized the Govt for this lockdown accusing Modi of dictatorship tendency throwing the hungry, poverty-stricken, migrants on the streets and pavements uncared for. The second lockdown little relaxed was in June as experimentation and once the pandemic started spreading wildly, Govt. was again back to stricter lockdowns. But by the end of june, Central Govt realized that the question of livelihood was becoming important and advised staggered unlocks.

But many states ruled by opposition leaders taking a holier than Centre attitude continued with strict lockdowns introducing epasses even for intrastate movements, imposing restrictions like total lockdowns during weekends making life difficult for the common man. There was a tough competition between states as to who leads in making life miserable for the man on the street.

Now the whole world is praising Modi for his foresight in clamping down a total lockdown inorder to control the spread of the pandemic. Opposition leaders have grudgingly acknowledging this, have now started saying that because of lockdown Indian economy is in ruins.

India had to face many unwanted human tragedies in between due to industrial accidents in Vizag, Neyveli,etc.fire accidents, air accident in Kochi, and also serious border clashes with China apart from terrorist incursions in J&K from Pak.

In the meantime, Central Govt unveiled Atmanirbhar initiatives, Agri reforms, and announced Rs.21 lac crore package of measures to revive the economy.

In the melee that followed, India is still left with some white elephants like Air India which are a drain on the exchequer.Air India should have been corporatized, separating the ownership and the management at least five years back. Had Central Govt taken this bold step at that time we would have found real value of the Air India as a Corporate entity. We understand that when Jitendra Bhargava wrote a book "Descent of Air India", it kicked off a political storm with Praful Patel filing a defamation case in  the court to get a ban on the book. But the author self-released it  in 2016 and is available on Amazon kindle as an e-book.Praful Patel withdrew his defamation suit in 2017.

Now with Air India only its Intangible asset of Bilateral Landing Rights is the most valuable of all assets.This has been brought out by Kumar V.Pratap former Joint Secy,GOI, in his recent article in FE wherein he has said that Planning Commission in 2011,refused permission to publish his earlier article on Privatisation of Air India(see the link) .Now the quotes for the sale of Air India have been invited through a global tendering process. The last date for submission of bids have also been so far postponed 4 times and now the last date stands at 31st Oct.When Travel & tourism and more particularly the aviation sector around the world has been severely crippled by the pandemic , finding a suitable bidder would be highly improbable. But Govt is left with Hobson's choice now.It has to bide its time for a suitor when the airline continues to lose its value and burn tax payers' money.

BPCL sale tendering process also is in the limbo due to the prevailing uncertainty induced by the pandemic. Other PSU divestments are also moving at snail's pace due to lockdowns.

To sum up, the Govt is unable to unlock the value for its assets!!


Government's asset monetisation

Policy prescriptions are flying thick and fast and on my part, I am adding one more .

All Economists including me are prescribing deficit monetisation, pump priming etc. taking a leaf out of Modern Monetary Theory.



As against this,Central Govt. has an alternative which is called Asset monetisation, according to me.Govt calls it Disinvestment/Divestment of PSUs. When the whole world is reeling under Covid pandemic , will there be a suitor for Air India?

Even if there is a good buyer will he be willing to pay the right price for Air India.What will be the benchmark for its valuation when the whole industry is bogged down by this pandemic and its repercussions on the travel industry.

In such unprecedented situations , it is best advised not to go in for outright sale transactions of Government stake in PSUs including Air India, BPCL,etc.

Similarly, other intangible but real assets are Spectrum waves (link), Mining/Abiotic  ,Biotic Resources which are hidden inside the Earth, Ocean ,Space etc., Potential Renewable energy sources, which have future economic value and can add to GDP when suitably exploited without degrading the environment.

If these resources are valued properly, and India identifies these assets in terms of monetising its strengths, then India will have to look for its Enterprise value and raise suitable resources upfront for its current requirements in investing in its infra development.

In fact even lands owned by Indian Airports Authority can be used better by allowing usage of its land underground for commercial purposes.Even some of the defence lands can be wisely used under the ground for commecial purposes without in any way jeopardising defence security.


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