Resilience Amidst Global Headwinds

Despite ongoing global geopolitical uncertainties and disruptions in trade and supply chains, the Indian economy has demonstrated remarkable resilience. India has effectively navigated these challenges, maintaining a steady growth trajectory.

The percentage of economic indicators displaying acceleration has risen to 74% in Q3 FY25, compared to 71% in Q2 FY25. A robust rural economy is playing a crucial role in reinforcing stability and sustaining growth across various sectors. Consistent rural agriculture wage growth, coupled with increased domestic tractor sales and a positive trend in rabi crop sowing, further contribute to this positive momentum. These factors collectively highlight the strengthening foundations of the Indian economy.(SBI EcoWrap Feb25)

Capital expenditure (CAPEX) is exhibiting improvement in Q3 FY25. While the majority of states' CAPEX as a percentage of Budgeted Expenditure (BE) was lower earlier in FY25, there's a noticeable upward momentum in Q3 FY25, which is a positive sign for future development. Furthermore, the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) manufacturing growth has increased from 3.3% in Q2 FY25 to 4.3% in Q3 FY25.

Consistent rural agriculture wage growth, coupled with increased domestic tractor sales and improved Rabi crop sowing, underscores the health and stability of the rural economy. Although the majority of states' Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) as a percentage of Budgeted Expenditure (BE) is lower in FY25, there is a notable upward momentum observed in Q3 FY25. This positive shift in CAPEX trends signals potential for further economic development and growth in the coming periods. 

In Q3FY25, around 4000 listed corporates reported a revenue growth of 6.2%, with EBIDTA and profit after tax (PAT) increasing by approximately 11% and 12% respectively compared to Q3FY24.​

Excluding the BFSI sector, over 3400 listed entities saw revenue and PAT growth of 5% and 9% respectively in the same period.​

Notably, these corporates experienced a 5% EBIDTA growth in Q3FY25, reversing the negative EBIDTA growth seen in the previous two quarters.​

At an aggregate level, the EBIDTA margin improved by 44 basis points to 14.84% from 14.4% in Q2FY25.​

Additionally, Corporate GVA grew by around 300 basis points year-on-year to 9.55% in Q3FY25.

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Outlook for Indian Economy

 As of February 20, 2025, the Indian economy presents a mixed picture, characterized by resilience and growth potential tempered by notable challenges. Here's an overview based on the latest insights:

Positive Aspects

• Growth Projections: Forecasts indicate India remains one of the fastest-growing major economies. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) recently raised its GDP growth estimate for the fiscal year 2024-25 (ending March 2025) to 6.7% from 6.6%, reflecting optimism about a second-half recovery after a weaker 5.4% growth in the July-September quarter. For 2025-26, projections range from 6.3% to 6.8%, with institutions like the United Nations and Goldman Sachs estimating around 6.6% and 6.3%, respectively, supported by strong private consumption and investment.
• Macroeconomic Stability: The current account deficit is under control, at 0.7% of GDP in FY24, and foreign exchange reserves stand robust at approximately $630 billion. Inflation is expected to moderate, with Goldman Sachs projecting headline inflation at 4.2% for 2025, aligning closer to the RBI’s 4% target, aided by favorable monsoons boosting agricultural output.
• Policy Support: The government’s fiscal policy has been complemented by monetary easing, with the RBI cutting rates by 25 basis points in February 2025—the first cut in nearly five years—injecting liquidity (e.g., 1.5 lakh crore rupees over recent weeks) to spur growth. Budget measures, including tax relief and consumption boosts worth around 1 lakh crore rupees, aim to stimulate demand.
• Sectoral Strength: Agriculture is rebounding with a projected 3.8% growth in FY25 (up from 1.4% last year), thanks to good monsoons. Services and manufacturing continue to expand, with GST collections hitting record highs and PMI indices signaling robust activity.

Challenges

• Slowdown Concerns: Recent quarters have shown a deceleration, with GDP growth dropping to 5.4% in Q2 FY25—a seven-quarter low—driven by weaker manufacturing (5.3% growth vs. 9.9% last year) and sluggish private investment. Corporate earnings reflect mixed demand, with some sectors like healthcare and beverages lagging.
• Consumption and Wage Issues: Mass consumption remains subdued, with stagnant real wages and a widening gap between rural and urban demand. Household net financial savings have declined to 5.3% of GDP in FY23 from a decade average of 8%, signaling reduced spending capacity.
• Unemployment and Inequality: Job creation lags, with only 45% of graduates deemed employable, and the informal sector (83% of the workforce) limits tax revenue and productivity gains. Income inequality persists, with a Gini coefficient of 0.4197 and the top 1% holding 40.1% of wealth, constraining broad-based consumption growth.
• Global Risks: External headwinds, such as volatile commodity prices, potential U.S. tariffs under the new administration, and a slowing global economy, could impact exports and foreign direct investment, which plummeted to $479 million between April and November 2024 from $8.5 billion the previous year.

Long-Term Outlook

India’s structural growth story remains intact, driven by favorable demographics, stable governance, and reforms like the Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme boosting sectors like electronics and pharmaceuticals. Analysts predict India will become the third-largest economy by 2027-2030, with GDP potentially reaching $5 trillion by then. However, achieving sustained 7-8% growth requires addressing unemployment, boosting private investment, and easing regulatory burdens—areas where progress has been slow.

In summary, the Indian economy is navigating a phase of moderated growth with promising fundamentals but faces hurdles in translating this into widespread prosperity. The coming quarters will test its ability to balance inflation control with growth revival amidst global uncertainties.

Few points reg. the new Income Tax bill

 How to reduce the litigation in Income tax Assessments under IT Act.

1)As per CBDT Time series released upto FY23-24, Pre-Assessment Tax collected which include TDS, Advance Tax and Self-Assessment Tax paid show almost 88% is collected (IT dept link ).Even out of the balance 12%, a major portion comes out of Central TDS, Dividend Tax,Equalisation levy which are also collected Pre-Assessment.Only a small percentage is collected by way of Post-Assessments and if we look at how much of Post-Assessment Tax lies in Appeals at CIT(A), ITAT, High Courts and Supreme Court,then we can get a fair idea of usefulness of Assessment process and procedure.

2)Since CIT(A) is the first Appeal level and there is a huge backlog of Appeals lying before CIT(A)s, we may even consider this Quasi Judicial Authority to be assisted by AI for speedy disposal of Appeals without prejudice to any significant fall in Tax collections since most of the Direct Tax(i.e 88% approx) is collected through TDS, Advance Tax and Self Assessment Tax as per CBDT Time series data upto FY23-24.

3)Even if CIT(A) position is combined with ITAT and segregated based on the amount of Tax under litigation, it may speed up the process.

4)Since Govt is the biggest litigant, Govt may look at dropping litigation if they lose in both ITAT &CIT(A) without going upto High Court and if they lose in ITAT and High Court not to take it before Supreme Court unless the Tax amount or the underlying legal point has pan-India implication.

Thoughts on the recent Union Budget and aftermath

 My first thoughts on the Union Budget are positive:-

1)The Fiscal deficit glide path adhered to is good for the economy interms of containing inflationary pressures and also give macro economic stability in the medium terms which will reassure all the Global Ratings Agencies for a possible Sovereign Ratings upgrade.This will moderate Interest rate which is positive for Private Capex investments to pickup.

2)The medium term reduction plan of Debt to GDP bringing it down to close to 50% by 2030 shifts focus from Fiscal deficit reduction to Debt to GDP in a significant manner

3)Certainly Acche Dhin AAA(Triple A) Gaya for Indian middleclass- despite Dil Maange More , one should admit honestly that in one stroke FM Nirmala Sitaraman has both made life easy and also made filing ITR easy for them. 

Inflation itself is a form of Taxation on the poor and for the middle class for whom Marginal Utility of Money is high, even one Rupee relief by way of Tax reduction will boost their spending propensity. Simple theory which puts more money in the hands of women belonging to Middle class will mean additional disposable income for Consumption to increase.

4) Allocation for Capex for Infra is more than 3.1% of GDP even without considering Grants in Aid for Capex in the States and Capex of CPSUs;

5)Allocation for  Agriculture under The Prime Minister Dhan-Dhaanya Krishi Yojana in 100 Districts benefiting 1.7 cr farmers is an unique scheme for improving the income levels of farmers.But bringing big Farmers by taxing Agricultural Income exceeding Rs.25 lacs p.a is yet to be implemented.

Other Highlights:-

Tax reforms

• New income tax slabs to increase take-home pay for salaried individuals and pensioners 
• Rationalization of Tax Deducted at Source (TDS) and Tax Collected at Source (TCS) to simplify the tax process
• Review of the rate structure for customs duties to reduce disputes and ease trade 
• Exemption of three more cancer medicines from custom duties

Infrastructure 

• Development of geospatial infrastructure and data
• Modernization of land records, urban planning, and design of infrastructure projects
• Set up of a National Digital Repository of Indian knowledge systems

Climate Action

• Significant funds allocated for renewable energy infrastructure, including solar, wind, and green hydrogen projects
Commitment to net-zero emissions by 2070
Concrete steps laid out to reduce carbon intensity in key industries like manufacturing, transportation, and power generation

Others

Creation of a “Makhana Board" in Bihar to improve the production, processing, value addition, and marketing of Makhana 
Ten thousand fellowships for technological research in IITs and IISc 
Documentation and conservation of manuscript heritage 

Outlook for H2 FY24-25 GDP

 

Domestic Developments

Recent movements in high-frequency indicators suggest a recovery in H2:2024-25 from the slowdown experienced in H1. Supply chain pressures remained below historical average levels, despite a marginal uptick in December. Based on the economic activity index (EAI), the seasonally adjusted GDP growth nowcast for Q3:2024-25 is placed at 6.2 per cent.

Aggregate Demand

The first advance estimates (FAE) of national income released on January 7, 2025, placed real GDP growth for 2024-25 at 6.4 per cent, compared with 8.2 per cent a year ago. While private and government consumption expenditure increased, and net exports contributed positively, investment growth moderated. In fact, gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) slowed to 6.4 per cent in 2024-25 from 9.0 per cent growth in 2023-24. A decisive factor in this investment slowdown was lower capital expenditure by both the Union and State Governments. On the external front, India's exports grew by 5.9 per cent in 2024-25, primarily due to steady growth in services exports. Imports contracted by 1.3 per cent, and enabled net exports to contribute positively to GDP growth by 1.7 percentage points.

High-frequency indicators suggest that aggregate demand firmed up in Q3:2024-25. E-way bills rose on a y-o-y basis in volume terms in December, and toll collections recorded strong growth both in volume and value terms. While overall automobile sales declined in December 2024, passenger vehicle sales recorded sound growth. Domestic tractor sales showed robust growth in December. Petroleum consumption expanded by 2.1 per cent (y-o-y) in December, as petrol, aviation turbine fuel (ATF), and diesel recorded strong growth of 10.8 per cent, 8.7 per cent, and 6.0 per cent, respectively.

India's investments in renewable energy are rising faster than other countries. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), India's annual renewable capacity additions are expected to quadruple from 15 GW in 2023 to 62 GW in 2030. In November 2024, several policy decisions were undertaken at COP29 held in Baku, Azerbaijan, to help countries deliver their climate plans more quickly and cheaply, facilitating faster progress in reducing global emissions this decade.

Inflation

Headline inflation, as measured by y-o-y changes in the all-India consumer price index (CPI), eased to a five-month low of 4.3 in Jan 2025, from 5.2 per cent in December 2024 and 5.5 per cent in November 2024. There is decline of 91 basis points in headline inflation of January, 2025 in comparison to December 2024. It is the lowest year-on-year inflation after August, 2024

Year-on-year inflation rate based on All India Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) for the month of January 2025 over January, 2024 is 6.02% (Provisional). Corresponding inflation rate for rural and urban are 6.31% and 5.53%, respectively. All India inflation rates for CPI(General) and CFPI over the last 13 months are shown below. A sharp decline of 237 basis point is observed in food inflation in January, 2025 in comparison to December, 2024. The food inflation in January, 2025 is the lowest after August, 2024.Food inflation decelerated to 7.7 per cent in December from 8.2 per cent in November. In terms of sub-groups, a moderation in inflation was observed in respect of cereals, milk, vegetables, pulses, and sugar, whereas inflation in respect of meat and fish, eggs, oils and fats, fruits, prepared meals, and nonalcoholic beverages picked up. Deflation in prices of spices persisted.

Year-on-year Fuel & light inflation rate for the month of January, 2025 is -1.38 %. Corresponding inflation rate for the month of December, 2024 was -1.33%. It is combined inflation rate for both rural and urban sector.Fuel and light deflation narrowed to (-)1.4 per cent in December from (-)1.8 per cent in November on account of a lower rate of deflation in kerosene and LPG prices and a higher rate of inflation in electricity prices. 

In January 2025, India's core inflation rate was 3.74%, which is a decrease from 3.64% in December 2024. This is considered low. Core inflation remained steady at 3.7 per cent in December 2024, the same as in November. Among the sub-groups, inflation moderated in case of housing, transport and communication, and personal care and effects sub-groups; it remained steady in respect of clothing and footwear, household goods and services, health, and education. Inflation in respect of pan, tobacco, and intoxicants, and recreation and amusement, however, registered an increase in inflation.

In terms of regional distribution, rural inflation stood at 5.76 per cent, higher than urban inflation (4.58 per cent) in December 2024. The majority of the states faced inflation less than 6 per cent.