Weekend musings!!

 

Why Opposition Congress, Communists, and NGOs want Elections based on Ballot papers

Because people want to create booth capturing and ballot papers/ VVPAT rigging scenarios where bombs can b thrown at the crowd to kill them while miscreants can destroy all ballot papers/VVPAT evidences etc. And finally they can blame Modi for rigging and not able to manage elections etc.

If 100% VVPAT print out is given to the people, then also they can sell the printouts for money to the parties .

How SC can stop selling of votes with VVPAT printout proof for higher amounts? Indirectly such VVPAT printouts will only encourage more black money to flow into our elections.

GOI should bring in a legislation whereby the Elections are jointly funded by Centre  through Budgetary allocations.SC should support the Govt for greater control, stricter monitoring and vigilance over expenses of Candidates who stand for elections. Only this can minimise use of black money in elections.

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Is India moving towards Presidential form of elections with Modi projected as PM candidate

Multiparty democracy will come into play when TINA factor is absent. When u r posed with the question whether u want stability and progress of the Country for your Children and grand Children to prosper fast or you want Uncertainty , what would you choose? This is not…

when media and journalists caution apprehension that  our Parliamentary election is morphing towards mandate for Presidential form, r they not mouthing Congress/ Dot alliance views? When the common man is confronted with TINA factor , when the masses should choose between Certainty of stability vs Uncertainty in every sphere which can weaken the country and its future , what would they choose?This is Hobson's choice!!

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Controversy created by Congress as to Minorities,especially Muslims will have first claim on Nation's resources

Speaking of giving minorities  first claim on national resources in the name of Secularism is nothing but appeasement for vote bank politics.If then PM had said inclusive growth is important and weaker sections like senior citizens, war widows,people with disabilities, destitute women and children would have first claim on nation;s resources then that would have been appropriate. But then Muslims would not vote for Congress!!

IMF, World Bank and Asian Development Bank-all three have revised upwards India's GDP growth for 2024 & 2025

 That's good news for the Indian economy. The World Bank and IMF have both recently increased their projections for India's GDP growth in fiscal years 2024 and 2025.

• The IMF expects India's economy to grow at 7.8% in FY24, which is higher than the government's estimate of 7.6%. IMF raises India's FY25 growth forecast to 6.8%; FY26 outlook unchanged: IMF noted that the growth surprised on the upside in the second half of 2023 as robust domestic demand fuelled activity, especially in emerging Asian economies. 
  and most notably India, recorded sizable positive growth surprises. In India, we expect investment to contribute disproportionately to growth, much of it public investment
• The World Bank projects a growth of 6.8% for both FY24 and FY25, attributing this to strong private consumption and public investment. 

• Recently India's GDP growth forecast has been revised upwards by the Asian Development Bank (ADB).

  Here's a quick summary of the key points:

  • The ADB upgraded India's GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal year (FY 2024-25) from 6.7% to 7%.
  • This revision is driven by factors like strong public and private sector investments, along with a gradual improvement in consumer demand.
  

Courtesy:The Print

In FY24, exports of goods came down by 3.2% yoy. Ready made garments, Gem & jewellery and Petroleum products were down but under Imports Oil imports were also down.So, the overall Trade deficit as a percentage of GDP is well contained below 2% of GDP.

Courtesy:CRISIL

The recently announced HSBC Flash India Composite Purchasing Managers Indices (PMI) indicate upbeat momentum in Indian economy. At 62.2 in April, the Flash India Composite PMI output index rose at the fastest pace in nearly 14 years.This clearly indicates that the Economy is growing at a robust pace and is emerging as a strong economy.

The most important outcome expected out of these GDP growth upward revisions and fiscal rectitude shown by GOI in containing the Fiscal deficit to 5.1% for FY25 , is Ratings upgrade by Global Rating agencies.

India's exports has come of age in FY 24

 February 2024 saw the highest monthly merchandise exports of the current fiscal year to yet. India exported USD 41.40 billion worth of goods in February 2024, up 11.86% from USD 37.01 billion in the same month the previous year.

Petroleum products, engineering goods, electronics, organic and inorganic chemicals, drugs and pharmaceuticals, and petroleum products are the main drivers of merchandise export growth in February 2024.
Exports of engineering goods reached USD 9.94 billion in February 2024, up 15.9% from USD 8.58 billion in the same month the previous year.

Organic and inorganic chemical exports rise by 33.04% from USD 2.22 billion in February 2023 to USD 2.95 billion in February 2024. Exports of electronic goods grow by 54.81% to USD 3.00 billion in February 2024 from USD 1.94 billion in February 2023.
In February 2024, the value of drugs and pharmaceutical products exported was USD 2.51 bn

an increase of 22.24% overUSD 2.06 Billion in February 2023

Petroleum Products exports in February 2024 grew by 5.08% at USD 8.24 Billion from USD 7.84 Billion in February 2023

Exports of Agricultural products including Tobacco (58.24%),Meat, Dairy & Poultry Products (37.83%), Oilseeds (37.71%),Cereal Preparations & Miscellaneous Processed Items(17.69%), Spices (14.84%), Fruits & Vegetables (12.72%)

and Rice (1.81%) showed growth momentum in February 2024

Overall trade deficit improved by 37.80% from USD 116.13Billion in April-February 2022-23 to USD 72.24 Billion in April-February 2023-24

Last but not the least, the merchandise trade deficit improved by 8.43% from USD 245.94 Billion in April-February 2022-23 to USD 225.20 Billion in April-February 2023-24. 

Courtesy:PIB press release dt 15th April 2024

This trend shows that India has come of age in Exports and has sustained this growth trend despite global head winds like recession in some of the economies, war in Ukraine and in Middle east. Hopefully this momentum will continue to grow in FY 25 and thereafter also.

Oil price movements can be the big party spoiler  and  so needs to be monitored closely!

Current Positive Economic Indicators for FY 24-25 and beyond ,for Indian Economy

 

GST collections and core sector growth in FY24 paint a positive picture of the Indian economy at the end of the fiscal year. Here's a breakdown of what we know:

• GST Collections: Reports indicate that GST collections remained buoyant throughout FY24. In February 2024, collections reached Rs 1.7 lakh crore, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.5% [1]. This trend is consistent with the entire fiscal year, suggesting increased economic activity.

• Robust Core Sector Growth: The core sector, which comprises eight key infrastructure industries in India, witnessed strong growth in February 2024. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing activity rose to 56.9, indicating a significant expansion. Additionally, the output of these core sectors reached a three-month high of 6.7% in February, compared to 4.1% in January [2].

Connection Between the Two: A rise in GST collections often reflects a growth in economic activity. Businesses tend to collect and pay more GST as they sell more goods and services. So, buoyant GST collections can be seen as a positive indicator alongside robust core sector growth. This suggests that FY24 might have been a period of economic expansion in India.

It's important to note that these are glimpses from reports and might not represent the final figures for FY24. However, they do provide encouraging signs about the Indian economy.

Here are some other positive economic indicators for India, besides the ones you mentioned:

• Rising Foreign Exchange Reserves: High forex reserves provide a buffer against external shocks and can be used to stabilize the rupee.
• Fiscal Deficit contained at 5.8% fo GDP and budgeted lower at 5.1%: This means the Govt is fully committed to fiscal consolidation glide path to bring down the Fiscal deficit to 4.5% or lower by FY26.
• Increasing Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): FDI inflows indicate that foreign investors are confident in the Indian economy and see it as a good place to invest.
• Indian Govt Bond inclusion in JP Morgan and Bloomberg Indices in FY 24-25: This is expected to bring an inflow of US25 billion in the Financial year ending 2025.
• Likely Improvement of Credit Rating: Due to the above positive economic indicators, the new Indian Govt after elections can rightfully expect a good credit rating upgrade from international agencies which will allow India to borrow money at lower interest rates and with all the positive news can attract capital at cheaper costs.
• Growing Startup Ecosystem: A thriving startup ecosystem signifies innovation and entrepreneurship, which can drive future economic growth.
• Government Reforms: Recent government reforms aimed at improving ease of doing business and attracting investments through schemes like PLI can boost economic activity, employment and a growing manufacturing pie.This can have Multiplier effect across the economy on income and employment opportunities.
• Growing Services sector and Services Exports:According to the commerce ministry, India's services exports in April 2023–February 2024 were $314.82 billion, which was a 7% increase from the same period in 2022–2023

It's important to remember that a healthy economy relies on a balance of various factors. While these indicators are positive, we should also monitor potential challenges like inflation, unemployment rates, and global economic conditions.