Blogging about Society, individual and collective behaviour/herd mentality, nudges,economics,business,politics,sports and spirituality and on all the other subjects about which I know very little !!
தேனின்ப மட்டுமன்று தமிழ்ச் செவிக்கு!
மேனியுள்ளமெங்கும் பரவு அமிழ்து!
ஊனுயிர் ஊட்டும் அவரின் செப்புமொழி!
வானமெங்கும் பாடும் குயில் மொழி!
அச்சமில்லை என்றே முழங்கினான் அவன்;
ஆணுக்கு சமானம் புதுமைப் பெண் என்றான் ;
இச்சகத்து உளோரெல்லாம் எதிர்த்து நின்றிடினும்,
இனியொரு விதிசெய்வோம் தனியே என்றான்!
காவெனக் கத்திடும் காக்கையை அழைப்பான்;
கானக அரசன் சிங்கமாய் கர்ஜிப்பான்;
பாரினில் ஒருவனுக்கு உணவில்லை என்றால்
பாரையே அழித்திட தீயாய் துடிப்பான்!
அவனில் ஞானபுத்தனைக் காணலாம்;
அவரின் போதி தத்துவம் அறியலாம்!
அவனியைக் காக்கும் கண்ணனை ரசிக்கலாம்;
ஆழ்ந்தவர் பக்திபரவசத்தை ருசிக்கலாம்!
Pl. see the below page from the Central Govt published data.link
Regular IT assessments done by Dept is yielding only 7 to 8% of total Gross Direct tax collected where as Adv. Tax, TDS and SA Tax is 92% i.e the voluntary compliance .
Is there not a strong case for abolishing Assts for atleast individuals who have good track record of say 10 continuous years and have limited scrutiny assessments only for Corporates/Companies with incentives for exemption from assessments if they remit Tax at least 15% more year on year.This will take care of tax buoyancy ratio and reduce assessment costs drastically.
Mr.Sunil Jain of FE recently sent a tweet to FM saying that IT dept is following up with him on some assessment notice despite complying with it and paying tax. Everyone of us have similar experiences on IT assessments despite computerisation. Straightaway all these scrutiny assessments can be called " IT Harassments "-no euphemism.
But it should also be emphasized that the scale of high pitched assessments has substantially come down over the last one/2 years but still more needs to be done in order to totally move away from Tax Terrorism to augment direct tax revenue. I am not making a case for tax evaders or dodgers who r small percentage and who will anyway continue to do so.
My firm conviction is ,if assessments are done away with , then more small businessmen will voluntarily pay under presumptive tax, file return and forget.Another indicator is the difference between how many assessees have paid tax/TDS and the no. who have filed returns.Almost 2 crore nos.!! Is it not sounding another loud bell for doing away with Assessments /Scrutiny assessments but with safeguards like good track record or yoy 15% inc. in tax remittance etc.
One last point. Out of such Tax assessed and shown collected by the Dept how much is contested in appeals before CITs, Tribunals , HCs and SCs.Huge burden on these Courts will also come down and unnecessary litigation is avoided. Lots of multiplier effects can be seen if assessments are abolished.
For encouraging people to file their Income Tax return, Govt can run a lottery or even give atleast health insurance policy under Ayushman Bharat free of cost.
The other day somebody told me that Abraham Lincoln after winning the elections , formed his first cabinet with three of the people who were his rivals for Republican nomination. Lincoln had a logic- Cabinet should represent diverse views and perspectives and also fiercely independent.
Should a Corporate Board reflect such diversity and independence? Every director in the Board brings with him or her wisdom for running the business and board diversity ensures that several new windows are opened and explored, new doors are found and hidden doors are unhinged.
One of the tasks for Boards is to form Committees like Audit Committee,NRC, Independent Directors' Committee etc. Now with rapid and disrupting changes happening around you,the importance of forming Risk Management Committee, Technology Adaptation Committee, Business Strategy Committee etc. has gained quite a bit of traction. Invariably for effective functioning of these Committees, Boards must have requisite reservoir of expertise and experience.
In this respect it is worthwhile to consider what Elon Musk has said about adopting first principles of thinking. Usually first principles of thinking process involves breaking down a larger complex issue into its conceivable parts for a coherent, cogent and cohesive understanding. But Musk says getting rid of preconceived conceptions about what you are creating is first principle of thinking - new age thinking.
Technology with its long hands of IoT, AI, Robotics, ML, DL,Industry 4.0,3D printing etc. ,has occupied the pride of place in managing today's Companies be it Shopfloor or Boardroom.
The second most important part of decision-making in the Board room should be asking "What-if " questions to the Strategy development. Board members must not shy away or hesitate to ask "what if "questions on all problems they foresee and look for the impact of such scenario analysis on the expected results. They should not hesitate to seek the help of outside experts for a report on such objective views with back up sensitivity analysis,data mining etc.
As a corollary, Board must always look for fail safe mechanism and should have a Plan B, Plan C etc up their sleeves, if their strategy meets unexpected risks and Black Swan or Grey Rhino events.
Many a grand strategy flounder when "what if" questions are not asked by Board members before approving the Strategy.
"Putting fruit at the eye level" is a Nudge. Nudge proposes positive reinforcements to influence the behaviour and decision making at individual level and at a societal level.
Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein in their book Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness have written on Nudges as the key method for influencing the human behaviour which has huge ramifications for the economic and political spheres of every country. Thaler won Nobel Prize for this path-breaking behavioural economics concept. The theory itself was built on the heuristic human behaviour concept of Daniel Kahnemann-Tversky model.Daniel Kahnemann in his book Thinking: Fast and Slow mentions System 1 and System 2 of human thinking process in which System 1 is quick, fast, hunch-based,heuristic and System 2 based on some primitive level analysis to arrive at prefered choice or option. When people have to contend with many choices/constraints or facing time constraint, System 1 will override System 2. leading to a sub-optimal outcome. WYSIATI(what you see is all there is) is an important underpinning guide in most of the human decisions made and Daniel Kahnemann has extensively dealt with this in his book. Nudges as a persuasive concept as opposed to any directive,coercive action is an adult to adult interactive mode (Transactional analysis?). Some very interesting Nudges that are used all over the worldlink. Traffic signal lottery, Piano stairs and cigarette butt voting dust bins will be all inducing good behaviour changing habits. In the realm of Macro economics inorder to improve tax return filing compliance, some Govts. introduced free health insurance with tax filing compliance. However the question of ethics of Nudging or is it some sort of psychological manipulation of human behaviour , remains open for discussion at the global level. India has always talked about Sama, Dhana, Bheda and Dhanda for influencing human behaviours, always starting with Sama/Dhana. Is the concept of Dhana not the same as "Putting a fruit at the eye level"- a Nudge?!! Closely connected with it is the Art of Choosing written by Sheena Iyengar in marketing parlance. She found out with jam flavour experimentation that too many choices confuse people in decision making . She demonstrated that people who tasted limited no. of jam flavours are ten times more likely to buy jams than those given more flavours to taste.But she is of the view that neither more choices nor very little are good ,but optimum lies somewhere in between. Daniel Kahnemann's System 1 will always take over human decision making when confronted with too many choices/options and this has been clearly brought out by Sheena's experiment. The same will hold good for Nudges also. Therefore some of the marketers have started offering a simple default option which will be a win-win for both the seller and the buyer. But lot of ground work to be done to decide on this default option for the buyer to perceive it that way!! As Sheena Iyengar says humans are born to create meaning and also to choose, science can help us to become skillful choosers ,but ultimate decision for zeroing in on a choice is still an art. Tax return filings is still an art?!We wudn't budge with Nudges?!!
Many scientists who have worked on studying Greek's antikythera mechanism which was found in a shipwreck in early twentieth century, to be precise 1901, is considered as the world's first analogue computer..
This was used to predict the astronomical events, transits, eclipses and other planetary positions well ahead of their occurences and used for astrological purposes even decades in advance.
There are some confusions as to whether it used Greek astronomy, Egypt astronomy or Rhodes' astronomy where Archimedes lived. The twelve months given in that machine carry the Greek names but has equivalent Egyptian names also. The research on this first computer has not yet concluded, even though the machine itself has disintegrated over a period of time from the time it was discovered under the sea.
But in India from time immemorial , astronomy has been studied by great sages and used for astrological purposes. The Hindu priest class developed an almanac listing all the planetary positions including eclipses etc. with great accuracy and their effects on human lives as part of Jyotisha i.e Astrology.
I have with great amusement found that the Gregorian calendar(1582 ACE) correspond with the seven days given in ancient hindu astronomical texts and some of the 12 months are taken in their Sanskrit names. Sunday in India correspond to Bhanuvara, Monday is Somavara etc. Thirugnanasambandar of 8th century ACE, in his Kolarupathikam also mentions the same order Sun, Moon, Mars etc. which has been imported into the Gregorian calendar order of weekdays.(link)This link's gives an idea of how week days have evolved scientifically/methodically in India.
The months of September (Sapthama), October(Astama), November (Navama), December (Dasama) were originally the 7th, 8th, 9th and 10th months and when Julius Caesar and Augustus added their names , these months became 9th, 10th, 11th and 12th months in Gregorian calendar.
As an Indian even though I know that these month names are Sanskrit, many western scholars say that these are Latin names and some say both Latin and Sanskrit are from a common Proto Indo-European group and the jury is still out.
The time system used today based on 60 minutes for an hour is also from India. Indian time system is always based on 60s. A day is divided into 60 ghatis and one ghati has 60 vinadis/vighatis and one vighati has 60 liptas etc. Even India has a system of cycle of 60 years at the longer end. There may be more to look at multiples of 60 to understand the time cycle methods used in India.
There are many such words like Geometry is Jamiti in Sanskrit, Tigonometry is Trikonamiti in S, smart is samarth in S etc. to name a few.
One small additional info with regard to Vaccination for small pox. Today I read from a book link "Pharmacology: Drug Actions and Reactions, Seventh Edition by R.R. Levine, C.T. Walsh, Rochelle D. Schwartz-Bloom" clearly says in Page 3 that Dhanwantri in his writings clearly mentions about vaccination for small pox. In their analysis "Smallpox and Vaccinia-Donald A. HendersonandBernard Moss" (Chapter 6) it is clearly mentioned that vaccination for smallpox was developed by Indians before 1000 AD and this went from India to China, Arabia etc.link From the book of another British physician Dr. Ainslie on Small-Pox and Inoculation in Eastern Countries (pages 66-67)link , I am giving his exact quote verbatim "To substantiate the fact that the inoculation of the "
cow-pox was known in remote times to the Vaidyas, it is only necessary "
to refer to the Sacteya Grantha, attributed to Dhanwantari, and there "
fore undoubtedly an ancient composition. In one part of the work, after "
describing nine several kinds of small-pox, of which three (one alabi, "
being the confluent) are declared incurable, the author proceeds to lay "
down the rules for the practice of inoculation. From this part the following
" two excerpts are made; of the first of which the original is given in
the " English character, and with it a literal translation: of the second
the original is not given, but merely the translation.
Excerpt First, from the Sacteya Grantha. " D'henu
stanya ma' suchiva naranancha, ma suchica, " Tajjalam bahu mulachcha
sastrantena gnhitavan, " Bahu mule cha sastrani ract'otpatti cariini cha,
" Tajjalam racta militam sphotaca jwara sambhavah." Translation of
the above. " Take the fluid of the cow-pox on the udder of a cow, or on
the arm " between the shoulder and the elbow of a human subject, on the
point of " a lancet, and lance with it the arms between the shoulder and
elbow " until the blood appears; then mixing the fluid with the blood, the
fever " of the small-pox will be produced.". Excerpt Second, the
Sanscrit Text being omitted. " The small-pox produced from the udder of a
cow will be of the same " gentle nature as the original disease, not
attended by fever nor requiring " medicine. The diet may be according to
the pleasure of the patient, " who may be inoculated once only, or two,
three, four, five, or six " times. The pock, when perfect, should be of a
good colour, filled with " a clear liquid, and surrounded with a circle of
red. There will then be " no fear of the small-pox so long as life
endures. When inoculated from " the udder of a cowr, some will have a
slight fever for one day, or two " or three days, and with this there will
sometimes be a slight degree of " cold fit; the fever will also be
attended by a round swelling in the arm " pit and the other symptoms of
the small-pox, but all of a very mild " nature. There will be no danger,
and the whole will disappear. (Signed) " Calvi Virambam." " Madras,
January 2d, 1819."
Many Chinese doctors in 19th and 20th century have also mentioned that this procedure might have gone from India to China, to Arabia and to Europe. But not all western scholars still do not believe or subscribe to this view.Many of them still say that either this could have gone from China or from Arabia to India and not the other way around!!
Finally one word about Al-Khwarizmi of Persia(from whose name the word " Algorithm" is derived),who has been credited as the founder of Algebra. What he started writing was"kitab al-jam' wa'l-tafriq al-ḥisāb al-hindī ('Addition and subtraction in Indian arithmetic')", actually learning it from India and he acknowledged it, but Western world is still not convinced ,even after Brahmagupta's phenomenal work became known. Has Ramanujam's contribution to modern maths and even to Banking(?)(ATM machines) been fully acknowledged. Experts can inform me about this.
Only Voltaire clearly said "I am convinced that everything has come down to us from the banks of the Ganges, – astronomy, astrology, metempsychosis, etc... It is very important to note that some 2,500 years ago at the least Pythagoras went from Samos to the Ganges to learn geometry...But he would certainly not have undertaken such a strange journey had the reputation of the Indians' science not been long established in Europe."
when the whole world is raising slogans on BLM( Black Lives Matter) , I rededicate my above poem once again to the ideals of Gandhiji who famously said "Means justify the Ends".Difficult for us to digest this and follow in our lives, it is based on the universal rule of Dharma.According to him All Lives Matter!!
நீ நான்
என்னைப் உன்னைப்
பார்க்கும் பார்வையில் பார்க்கும் பார்வையில்
உன்னை நான்
நீயே என்னையே
திருப்(ம்)பிப் பார்க்கிறாய்!! திருப்(ம்)பிப் பார்க்கிறேன்!
உன் வார்த்தை என் வார்த்தை
என்னைக் குறிவைக்க, உன்னைக் குறிவைக்க,
உன்னை உனக்கு என்னை எனக்கு
எடுத்துக் காட்டும்?! எடுத்துக் காட்டும்?!
உன் மனத்தின் என் மனத்தின்
உயிரோட்டத்தின் உயிரோட்டத்தின்
பிரதிபலிப்பை பிரதிபலிப்பை
உன் வாயில் பிறக்கும் என் வாயில் பிறக்கும்
வார்த்தையில் வார்த்தையில்
ஜனிக்கக் காண்பாய்?! ஜனிக்கக் காண்பேன்!?
என்னைச் உன்னைச்
சு(ட்)டும் உன் சொற்கள் சு(ட்)டும் என் சொற்கள் உன்னையே என்னையே
கூர்ந்து கணிக்கும் கூர்ந்து கணிக்கும்
எண்ண வடிவுகள்!! எண்ணத்தின் பிம்பங்கள்!
The four states of Consciousness or is it five states really:
1) Jagrat- when we are fully awake and when all our 5 senses are active and mind and the body work in tandem. What we do in this state of wakefulness has been described in all our philosophies and Katho Upanishad's story of Nachiketa's dialogue with Yama gives a glimpse. When the young boy Nachiketa asks Yama for the third boon asking him to explain the mystery of what happens after death, Yama after showing reluctance initially ,answers and blesses Nachiketa for his steadfastness .Yama says the Self/Soul is the lord of the chariot, the body is the chariot, the intellect is the charioteer, the mind is the reins, and the five senses are the horses leading the chariot wallowing through the desires of life.
The same is also told by Bhagawan Krishna in Chapter 3 verse 43 indirectly when he said "jahi Shatrum kama roopam dhurasatham" -that for slaying the lust and desires, one should control the senses through the strength of the soul with the discerning intellect (buddhi) as the charioteer and mind as the reins.
The great Thiruvalluvar also says
"ஒருமையுள் ஆமைபோல் ஐந்தடக்கல் ஆற்றின்
எழுமையும் ஏமாப் புடைத்து. (Like a tortoise withdrawing its limbs and head into its shell, if all the five senses are controlled by an individual in one birth, it will continue to guide him for seven births) kural 126
2. the second stage is Swapna and this is the stage where the person is taken to the world of illusion and many philosophers say that this stage of swapna in sleep itself is swapna within a swapna. When we realise Jagat as mithya(Brahma sathyam , we know that even in the state of wakefulness we are experiencing an illusory world. So this state of Swapna while sleeping is called "Swapna inside a Swapna". It is also called mind weaving dream experiences which try to imitate real-life instances.
3.Sushupti which is the third stage , is that of deep sleep when the mind is at rest and all the five senses losing their original state, the self losing its relevance and one with the universal consciousness. "i" is dead in Sushupti (உறங்குதல் போலும் சாக்காடு...). 4) Turiya , the fourth stage, is called Transcendental consciousness which is experienced as being one with the Whole, where the distinction between Self and the Absolute is realised and observed. This is a higher state of mind called Savikalpa Samadhi. 4) Turiyata or Chidakasa is the ultimate stage, where the Self is lost and the distinction between Self and Absolute dissolves and the whole universe is realised as Paramatman. The mind becomes Sat-chit-ananda.This is the highest state of mind called Nirvikalpa Samadhi. Saints like Kanchi Periava, Ramana Maharishi, Kuzhandaiananda Swamigal, Seshadri Swamigal, Shirdi Sai baba were all living examples of this during 20th century. Are we not blessed to have seen or known them during our lifetime!!Some good karma.!!
The great Tamil writer சுஜாதா(Sujatha) once wrote that our lives are one of Progressive Compromises of unfulfilled wishes and wants.
When we are born, Sigmund Freud said ,that we are born with Id, Ego and Alterego-the three states of our subconscious existence and the interplay between these three manifests in our personality and reflect in our behavioural traits.
Eric Berne wrote a famous book "Games People Play:The Psychology of Human Relationships" where he described how Child,Adult and Parent ego states play and he described it in terms Transactional Analysis for interpreting all the social interactions.He also went on to say that people also play mind games with hidden motives,desires etc. and described such negative behaviours in terms of the ego states dominating the individuals.
For solving the life's problems Thomas Harris wrote a practical guide "I'm Ok, You are OK" by doing the Transactional Analysis of the behavioural pattern of individuals.This is based on the Johari Window concept developed by Joseph Luft and Harrington Ingham where the four quadrants are fit in the understanding of the relationship with themselves and with others:" I'm not Ok, you are not OK', I'm not ok,you are OK", "I'm OK, you are not OK", "I'm OK, You are OK".
So all these stalwarts have explained what is happening in our daily interactions but none of them have looked at what it means to individuals in the long term for themselves or for the society at large.
However, even if somebody is in the quadrant of I'm OK, You are OK, with the right blend of Adult, Parent and Child egos , then with aging there can be "progressive compromises" and that is what writer Sujatha alludes to.
He goes on to explain that in his twenties he wanted to play guitar and buy a piece of Moon. But over a period of time his ambitions mellowed down and finally when he reached the 70s in age , even passing urine daily morning without any complication,according to him, became an achievement in one's life. May sound funny but it outlines a question as to what is the purpose of one's life. is it only Progressive Compromises or something more? We can feel within ourselves that there can be or should be something more to life.
Many philosophers have pondered over this question and in India all the Masters and Spiritual Gurus have categorically told that the surrendering of the self to Bhagawan is the ultimate purpose of life. But the means advocated is like what 15th century Gujarati poet Narsinh Mehta sung:" vaiṣṇava jana to tene kahiye je pīḍa parāyī jāṇe re,"
(Call those people Vaishnav who Feel the pain of others,)
So helping those in pain and misery is the means by which one surrenders himself to Bhagawan.
Is there any better way of explaining the purpose of Life!!May be, but in all humility, I want to say ,I don't know.
I had the privilege and honour of attending "Art of Living" sessions for 4 consecutive days.
the sessions were very informative, opening many doors for me even though known to me. There were exercises for the conscious, subconscious and superconscious levels.
One of the tasks given to us was to do 5 random acts of Kindness by each one of the participants. This was thought-provoking for me ,since I wanted to continue with it every day. Feeding a dog, crow, helping your wife in household chores(Is it an act of kindness!!), making a small donation, etc. But sustaining this on a day to day basis every day is highly demanding. So I have reduced it to at least 2 acts of kindness per day!!
There are a few important powerful messages I received:
1)Opposite values are complementary- day/night, ugly/beautiful, good/bad- one cannot exist without the other. Somebody said Opposites merge in Oneness like Seshnag and Garuda exist in one abode with Bhagwan. Thiruvalluvar said " வேண்டுதல் வேண்டாமை இலான்அடி சேர்ந்தார்க்கு யாண்டும் இடும்பை இல (அதிகாரம்:கடவுள் வாழ்த்து குறள் எண்:4) "
(To those who meditate the feet of Him who is void of desire and/or aversion,evil shall never come)
(The twin-fold deeds that spring/lead, from/to darkness, shall not adhere to those who delight in the true praise of God)
In both the above kurals the emphasis is on opposites losing their values in front of God.
2)Pl. don't see intentions behind other peoples' mistakes/actions;i.e many a time we start jumping drawing diabolical evil intentions, purposes,motives behind others' actions. That is for Police and Judiciary to see and not for the common man who is in search of harmony.
3)Pl. do not be a football for others; willingly you can be a football for some time but do not allow others to use you like a football. Even Lord Krishna ,when he went as Pandava Dhootha allowed the enemies to play him like a football but with the good intention of preventing a war.
4)Accept people and situations as they are. Most of the time we react to others but not respond to others. Forgive and forget even those who have done the worst to you. This is being proactive in forgiving and forgetting for getting ahead with life.
5)Always live in the present and not brood over the past or worry about the future or the unknown. Give 100% to the present moment and action is important for peace of mind without any regrets in the future.
We are all energy microcosm and so since energy is neither made or destroyed in the Universe but only transformed,the rightful conclusion is that we have been in this Universe from time immemorial.
Am I counting my blessings or accounting for the missing, daily!!!
Humans are students of life with the ability to help others in every possible way, however small may it be, day in and day out and go up in the ladder of evolvement of their individual souls. In this process they realise that they are preprogrammed machines with same set of Operating Systems of mind and senses ,but with a discerning intellect guided by the Paramatman from deep inside.
Some may agree that the "inner voice" of conscience, as Gandhiji would put it, is God speaking to you or through you and many may disagree with this. Let us not digress into that.Let us keep it aside as this is a black box about which discussion can go on endlessly.
But the elephant in the room is that we have limited cognition of both our external universe i.e physical outer world as well as, of the inner mind space world. We are only tuned into certain frequencies or preset softwares, for the purpose of our existence in this earth.
We are daily shaped by our observations cum experiences , which form our memories of short run and long run based on our Cognitions or Perceptions. All these interact and reinforce each other continuously defining our path of life.
The Interactive Triangle can be presented this way: (Ego is Gross and Consciousness is subtle- but both exist)
In 1896, Ernest Hanbury Hankin, a British Bacteriologist, Chemist, came out with a finding that the Indian rivers, Ganges and Jamuna could actually restrict the outbreak of cholera and in fact the waters could destroy the Cholera bacteria. He was the first to detect the bacteriophage activity and its presence in the river waters of Ganges and Jamuna. A startling discovery when the whole world was saying the river waters of Ganges were the most polluted.link. In his own words "It is seen that the unboiled water of the Ganges kills the cholera germ in less than 3 hours. The same water, when boiled, does not have the same effect. On the other hand, well water is a good medium for this microbe, whether boiled or filtered." This was mentioned even by Mark Twain in his More Tramps Abroad. Recently microbiology researchers from Chandigarh's Institute of Microbial Technology (IMTECH), studied the healing properties of Ganges water at its upper reaches and found bacteriophage activity which destroys the disease causing bacteria. The bacteriophage is a type of virus that eats up bacteria.link. Recently MIT came up with a study on fasting by humans and its beneficial impact on human health.link "Fasting boosts stem cell regenerative capacity"- the MIT article says,
"As people age, their intestinal stem cells begin to lose their ability to regenerate. These stem cells are the source for all new intestinal cells, so this decline can make it more difficult to recover from gastrointestinal infections or other conditions that affect the intestine.
This age-related loss of stem cell function can be reversed by a 24-hour fast, according to a new study from MIT biologists. The researchers found that fasting dramatically improves stem cells’ ability to regenerate, in both aged and young mice."
Indians practice this 24-hour fasting once in 15 days on the Ekadasi day from time immemorial.
The human body is an intelligent machine with recuperative and regenerative capacity and given the right metabolic switch , it can mend itself when disease strikes.
All the Siddhars of India emphasized that "உணவே மருந்து"(Food is medicine) when taken in the right quantity at the right time intervals. Thiruvalluvar has also emphasized this in his kural chapter "மருந்து".
India is a land possessing all the keys to the world's problems, if only you explored.
When coming out of a pandemic will the world view change?
I recently read that Ms.Angela Merkel, Chancellor of Germany, has inducted more Virologists, Epidemiologists and Sociologists etc. into her team for the purpose of decision making in these challenging times of the pandemic.Of course there are Economists also in the policy making.
Leaders around the world either leading a country or leading a corporation have started listening to the Health Experts for formulating new Age policies across the continents. The Health policy to dovetail into Economic Policy of the country. So far countries have been juggling only with Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy but now the "New Normal" has emerged, where economic policy making is incumbent upon Health Policy direction, speed and spread.
The following graph will illustrate how Economic well being and growth of a country is going to hinge on its Health Policy and Infra in the coming years.
As Risk Management Experts view this pandemic " Black Swan" event Low probability but High impact event ; some calling it Grey Rhino event (high impact but known unknown)as the world neglected the repeated warnings of the pandemic outbreak for sometime now. May be only the timing and impact was not known.
But to come out of it we need to build bottom up with both robust Health Policy vectors intertwined with Economic policies that provide nudges for better health outcomes on a long term basis.
We need to appreciate that there may be many windows through which the diverse view points will emerge and for formulating future policies either at Governmental level or at a Corporate House level , all these windows need to be opened and studied/listened to ,for a Sustainable Governance architecture.
Amid the pandemic, demands for social equality emerging out of George Floyd's death ,turning into demands for economic equality in a society of Haves and Havenots are deafening.
"Buy land, they're not making it anymore"-Mark Twain
Govt. is in the process of identifying land parcels for attracting industries moving out of China for want of safe haven. If big land parcels can be earmarked for setting up Industrial parks and industrial clusters, it will give a huge fillip for Make in India campaign.
As PM said India has the Intent, it paves way for Inclusion, provides Infrastructure. attracts Investment and enables Innovation. But what is stopping it from leap frogging. It is redtapism in land acquisition ,lackadaisical Court procedures and the greed of politicians that put paid to ambitions of growth in Make in India. Even smaller countries like Vietnam, Indonesia are able to attract industries moving out of China in a big way but the sleeping giant like India falters.
Despite improving the ranking in Ease of Doing Business has the economy really energised itself to become an aspiring industrial giant. There are green shoots here and there , but one swallow does not make a summer. We know of several projects that are languishing due to land acquisition hurdles like Chennai MRTS last leg of just 500 meters upto St Thomas Mount for more than a decade. Who pays for the time, cost over runs. Nothing is free in economics and only the poor taxpayer foots the additional bill and he gets empty rhetoric but gets no infra facility for decades.
Some out of the box solutions for land parcels will have to be found out. We know that land is not manufactured anymore.Is it really? Can we not flatten some of the mounds, hillocks around our cities and build industrial parks.
For example near Chennai airport there are few hillocks and if they are removed or flattened reasonably, many industries can be located. If these rocks removed from such hillocks are deposited near our Coastline can we build small islands to locate some industries over there?
Can we start manufacturing lands as part of Make in India initiative?
This Curve theory explains the process as to how people cope up with significant upheaval or life-changing or threatening situations.link
The process explains that people undergo five/six stages: the first stage is that of Shock, then going into Denial, then to Anger, moving into Depression. Up to this stage the performance of the individual or group of people will continue to deteriorate as time progresses. Once the inevitability of the Change dawns, then the people move to Acceptance and finally into Integration when the performance will again start regaining the original position or sometimes exceeding it if there are supporting enablers or incentives.
This is true for individuals as well as for a country or economy.
Since the nation received the pandemic shock in March middle, you may recount we have seen at least the first four stages. We start denying that this pandemic will affect us and once we realised that it is spreading we showed our Anger at China, TJ, and at all those epicentres. Now we are in the Depression stage slowly moving into Acceptance stage where we need to understand to live with this virus by being vigilant and exercising caution. We should not let our safety guard down .
One must also understand that when you are already in Depression stage, if there is another negative news the performance will again start sagging and another cycle /bout of Shock, Denial ,Anger and Depression will kick in .So, it is extremely important for the Govts and the people to navigate this phase without further unexpected shocks.
People are cautioned to listen to the TV news with a pinch of salt. They must look at the Covid nos as a percentage of tests made, active cases situation , infection per lac of population and death per lac.
RBI consumer confidence survey was done in May 2020, which came out a few days back paints a dark picture of consumer confidence. It has hit rock bottom so far.link. Whether it will hit another bottom is a moot point.
According to RBI Consumer confidence collapsed in May with the Current Situation Index (CSI) touching a historic low of 63.7 dipping from 85.6 in March 20. One year ahead Future Expectations Index entered the zone of pessimism at 97.9 for the first time after Modi govt. took charge, falling from 115.2 just two months ago.
These are all negative news, but as expected. However these are lag news and therefore markets looking for lead indicators ignored this. We all now know that Covid 19 has wreaked havoc on our economic health more than what it could do to people health.
But there are several silver linings like not many people do not expect price levels to go up. If we discount the "recency bias" in their opinions and perceptions,I still find 14.4 % people saying in May 2020 that the economy has improved. We must also keep the date of survey and context in our minds. The survey date is between May 5-17 and in the midst of Covid fear, with lakhs of migrant workers walking and shown endlessly 24x7 in TV news. Sometimes I wondered how come with so many trains and buses being stopped which were all running overcrowded, people are managing commuting and travelling. Our media has put a little spin and exaggeration to this by labelling every traveller on foot a migrant labourer leaving for his native place. Every reporter worth his salt with a mike on hand interviewed every single person on foot asking whether he was migrant labour and everyone being asked acknowledging it. Now I understand that all those trains and buses running daily are only for migrant labourers!! That is beside the point.
Coming back to my point that almost 14.4% of people still finding that the economy has improved is a testimony to the confidence of the people on the Govt. Govt has rightly acted with alacrity by announcing Rs.21 lac crore bundled package which will make supply-side fire on all cylinders. All of us agree that it is the supply side which needs time to pick and put all its pieces together. But the confidence and speed with which Supply-side can get back on its feet, essentially depends on its perception of demand perking up. The demographic dividend is a major contributor to the demand but Future Expectations Index indicator is a proxy for this perception by the Supply-side. When FEI is weak, it is time for the Govt. to understand that income levels are falling and people are losing faith in the strength of the economy. This pessimism will damage the Supply-side booster shots going waste unless the perception is reversed quickly. Opening up of the economy after lockdown will itself augur optimism but sustaining it depends on Demand-side actions by the Govt. To kickstart a flagging economy, the man on the street who is the ultimate consumer must get his job back, his income back and basically his dreams about the future back.
Govt must work for getting his dreams back without losing time. Cut Auto sector GST, for a start.
